2025年度展望（三）：国内经济：杠杆空间和经济刺激：有约束的扩张

Economic Outlook - The domestic economic growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5%, similar to 2024, due to uncertainties such as U.S. tariffs, real estate stabilization, and price index recovery[3]. - The marginal incremental funds for 2025 are projected to be approximately 2%-2.5% of GDP, indicating a constrained expansion rather than a strong stimulus[2]. Fiscal Policy - The broad deficit ratio is anticipated to reach 8.5%-9.0% in 2025, surpassing the levels seen in 2020, which reflects a shift towards a "constrained expansion" fiscal policy[2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to transition from a pro-cyclical to a counter-cyclical stance, with a focus on enhancing public consumption rather than solely on investment[3]. Government Spending - Local infrastructure investment is projected to rebound, but public spending needs to shift from investment to consumption, as government consumption currently accounts for about 16% of GDP, which is relatively low compared to international standards[4]. - The government aims to break the dual negative feedback loops affecting the residential sector, which are suppressing private demand[4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed initial signs of stabilization in October, with a slight increase in housing prices and a recovery in sales growth, indicating potential for further policy support to ensure a more robust recovery[7]. - The government is expected to implement policies to support the stabilization of the real estate market, which is crucial for overall economic recovery[7]. Price Index and Inflation - The CPI is projected to increase to 0.9% in 2025, while the PPI is expected to turn positive by the fourth quarter, reflecting a gradual recovery in demand and pricing dynamics[8]. - The GDP deflator has been negative for six consecutive quarters, raising concerns about nominal income growth for households and businesses, which could impact overall economic sentiment[8].