券商板块月报：券商板块2024年10月回顾及11月前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [56] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage index reached a three-year high in early October 2024 before undergoing a correction, with the index rising by 3.53% for the month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.69 percentage points [4][8] - Key factors influencing the monthly performance of listed brokerages include a recovery in fixed income, a historical high in average daily trading volume, and an increase in margin trading balances [4][31] - The brokerage sector is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three quarters, with a potential upward challenge to a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2 times in the future [6][50] Summary by Sections October Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index experienced a significant rise at the beginning of October, followed by a correction, ultimately showing strong performance despite the adjustments [8][10] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.425 and 1.649 times during October, with a closing average of 1.493 times, below the historical average of 1.55 times since 2016 [16][48] Key Factors Affecting Monthly Performance - The equity market entered a consolidation phase while fixed income showed strong recovery, leading to expected growth in proprietary trading [4][19] - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 20,150 billion yuan, with total monthly trading volume at 36.27 trillion yuan, indicating a significant rebound in brokerage business [28] - The margin trading balance reached a new high of 1.7089 trillion yuan, contributing positively to the monthly performance of listed brokerages [31][35] November Performance Outlook - The proprietary trading in equities is expected to decline slightly, while fixed income trading is anticipated to improve, leading to stable overall monthly investment returns for brokerages [5][43] - The brokerage sector's overall performance is projected to remain stable, with expectations of a significant rebound in both equity and debt financing activities [47][48] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage index has entered a consolidation phase after reaching a new high, with a focus on maintaining attention on the sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly in leading brokerages and those with valuations below the sector average [6][52]