金属行业周报：出口退税政策调整，短期关注基本面变化

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [4] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic real estate tax incentives and the expansion of urban village renovation support will benefit downstream demand in the steel sector. However, due to seasonal weather and routine maintenance at steel mills, the fundamentals of the steel industry may weaken in the near term, putting pressure on steel prices [6]. - For copper, improvements in domestic real estate sales and economic data in October indicate that the favorable policies introduced at the end of September are beginning to take effect. The supply of copper ore is expected to remain tight, providing support for copper prices, with attention needed on future copper concentrate processing fee negotiations and important domestic meetings in December [6]. - The cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates is expected to impact aluminum exports but may support domestic aluminum prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the upcoming important national meetings in December [6]. - In the lithium sector, recent data shows a significant year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy vehicles, indicating improved downstream demand. However, the report suggests that the current oversupply pressure in the lithium industry may limit further price increases [6]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Recent improvements in downstream demand have led to better profits for steel mills and increased production, with inventory levels decreasing. Future outlook remains cautious due to potential weakening fundamentals [26]. - As of November 22, the total steel inventory was 12.043 million tons, down 1.02% from the previous week and down 8.22% year-on-year [34]. - The average steel price index as of November 22 was 3,638.24 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week but a decrease of 14.43% year-on-year [46]. Copper Industry - The report notes a decline in copper prices, which has stimulated purchasing sentiment in the downstream market, leading to a decrease in domestic inventory levels. The supply of copper ore is expected to remain tight, providing price support [49]. - As of November 22, the copper smelting and refining fees were reported at $11.30/ton and 1.13 cents/pound, respectively, both showing an increase of 3.67% from the previous week [52]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the price of alumina continues to strengthen due to tight bauxite supply and production disruptions caused by severe weather warnings. The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to impact aluminum exports positively [56]. Lithium Industry - The report highlights a 66% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy vehicles from November 1-17, indicating improved demand. However, the current oversupply in the lithium market may limit price increases in the near future [65][66].