Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [2][58]. Core Insights - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers has reached a bottom, with signs of gradual recovery [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of changes in central enterprise bidding rules, which are expected to support price increases in the wind power sector [16][23]. - The anticipated growth in offshore wind projects and overseas expansion is expected to contribute significantly to profit increments by 2025 [32][41]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Bottoming Out - Domestic wind turbine prices have stabilized after a significant decline from approximately 4000 RMB/KW in 2020 to around 1400-1500 RMB/KW, leading to substantial losses for major companies [9][10]. - Wind turbine manufacturers are now abandoning low-price competition strategies, which has led to a stabilization in bidding prices and a gradual recovery in gross profit margins expected in 2024 [9][10]. Section 2: Price Recovery - The central enterprise bidding rules are a key variable driving price recovery, with recent agreements among major wind power companies to resist harmful price competition [17][18]. - The bidding prices for various turbine models are showing an upward trend, indicating a potential for improved profitability in the coming quarters [23][24]. Section 3: Structural Recovery - Significant progress in offshore wind projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu is expected to accelerate construction, with an estimated 20.42 GW of offshore projects likely to be connected to the grid by 2025 [36][37]. - The report highlights that the offshore wind market is poised for substantial growth, with a projected capacity of 15 GW supported by ongoing project developments [35][38]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the recovery of wind turbine prices and the acceleration of offshore project construction as key investment themes, particularly in leading companies involved in wind turbines, pile foundations, submarine cables, and castings [53].
御风系列二十七期:风机盈利底部明确,修复渐行渐近
Changjiang Securities·2024-11-27 02:42