银行行业：资产配置与资负规划展望2025

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these institutions [6]. Core Insights - The report discusses significant changes in the domestic and international policy environment since Q3 2024, emphasizing the need for banks to adapt their asset-liability planning for 2025 [2][78]. - It highlights a shift in macroeconomic policy focus towards promoting consumption alongside investment, which is expected to enhance nominal returns and reduce risk premiums [78][91]. - The report anticipates a slight recovery in revenue growth for listed banks in 2025, with state-owned banks expected to benefit more significantly compared to smaller banks [2][78]. Summary by Sections Domestic and International Policy Analysis - The report outlines four key changes in domestic policy direction, including a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, balancing consumption and investment, improving government-market relations, and deepening reform and opening-up [82][91]. - It notes that the U.S. policy outlook may change following the recent election, with potential implications for interest rates and investment sentiment [79]. Liquidity Outlook - The report predicts that liquidity will improve due to increased foreign exchange settlement and fiscal support, contributing to deposit growth and overall liquidity enhancement [2][78]. - It suggests that the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential will continue, impacting cross-border capital flows [2][78]. Asset Allocation Structure - The report indicates a shift in asset allocation preferences, with a decline in demand for fixed-income assets and a potential increase in risk investment demand as nominal returns rise [2][78]. Bank Asset-Liability Configuration Outlook - It forecasts a transition from time deposits to demand deposits, with larger banks gaining market share, alleviating asset and liability pressures [2][78]. - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the consumer sector, particularly in eastern regions, and anticipates an improvement in net interest margins for banks [2][78]. - It also notes that the contribution from investment income is expected to decline, while the growth rate of non-interest income may recover due to capital market improvements [2][78].