兴证建筑每周观点：“化债”再融资专项债发行超万亿，节奏加快助力建筑央国企基本面改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for major construction state-owned enterprises including China Railway, China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, China Electric Power Construction, China Chemical, China National Materials, China Steel International, and Honglu Steel Structure [1]. Core Insights - The issuance of special refinancing bonds exceeding 1 trillion yuan is accelerating, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of large construction state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan to local governments, facilitating the issuance of refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, thereby supporting infrastructure projects [3][4]. - The construction sector is anticipated to see a rebound in performance due to the rapid pace of debt reduction and the increased use of new special bonds [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Events Tracking - The Ministry of Finance has approved a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan for local governments, with plans for early allocation of 2025's new special bond limits [22]. - Various provinces, including Zhejiang and Liaoning, are set to issue refinancing special bonds to replace hidden debts, with amounts reaching 676 billion yuan and 467 billion yuan respectively [22]. 2. Market Performance Tracking - From November 18 to November 22, 2024, the construction engineering sector (SW) declined by 1.61%, while the overall A-share index fell by 2.08%, resulting in an excess return of 0.46 percentage points for the construction sector [23]. - Sub-sectors such as housing construction and water and electricity experienced varying degrees of decline, with housing construction down by 0.29% and water and electricity down by 3.32% [23]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - Fixed asset investment reached 4,232.22 billion yuan from January to October 2024, showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) totaled 14,923.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [6]. - The construction sector's PE (TTM) is reported at 9.94, with a historical percentile of 17.58%, indicating a relatively low valuation [27]. 4. Financing Data Tracking - From November 16 to November 22, 2024, new special bonds issued amounted to 40.12 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 39,417.06 billion yuan for the year, exceeding the planned quota [5][32]. - The report highlights a net financing deficit in urban investment bonds during the same period, indicating challenges in the financing landscape [32].