HUATIE(603300) 申万宏源·2024-11-27 02:46Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次覆盖) [10][13] Core Views - The company focuses on aerial work platform leasing, holding a stable market share of over 20% in the industry, and is expected to benefit from the growth of the aerial work market [10][13] - The company is actively exploring innovative businesses such as computing power leasing, which is expected to become a new growth driver under the support of Hainan State-owned Assets [10][13] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 34.3% from 2024 to 2026, with a target price of 7.63 yuan, representing a 42% upside from the current closing price [10][13] Market Data - Closing price: 5.36 yuan [3] - Price range over the past year: 7.10/4.05 yuan [3] - P/B ratio: 1.7 [3] - Dividend yield: 0.41% [3] - Market cap of circulating A shares: 10,562 million yuan [3] Financial Data - Net asset per share: 3.07 yuan [3] - Asset-liability ratio: 71.42% [3] - Total shares/circulating A shares: 1,971/1,971 million [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Operating revenue for 2024E: 5,797 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 30.5% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E: 854 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 6.6% [7] - ROE for 2024E: 13.7% [7] - P/E ratio for 2024E: 12 [7] Core Advantages - Light-asset model maintains high growth in aerial work platform inventory, with over 36,000 units under light-asset mode by 1H24, accounting for 24% of total inventory [9] - Digitalization and AI empower front-end business, with operational efficiency and cost control outperforming peers [9] - Market-oriented equity incentives retain key business personnel, with 6 equity incentive plans implemented since 2018 [9] Future Prospects - Low penetration rate and high growth potential in the aerial work platform market, with the company holding over 20% market share [10] - Hainan State-owned Assets provide multi-faceted support, accelerating overseas market expansion under the "Belt and Road" initiative [10] - Exploration of computing power leasing as a new growth driver, leveraging Hainan State-owned Assets' support [10] Historical Performance - Revenue CAGR from 2019 to 2023: 40% [11] - Net profit CAGR from 2019 to 2023: 31% [11] - Aerial work platform inventory grew from 8,700 units in 2019 to 121,000 units in 2023, with a CAGR of 93% [101] Industry Analysis - Aerial work platform market in China has a low penetration rate of 3.8 units per 10,000 people, compared to 25.6 units in the US, indicating significant growth potential [89] - The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.5% from 2023 to 2027, reaching 1.19 million units by 2027 [89] - The company holds the second-largest market share in China, with a duopoly competition structure alongside Hongxin Construction [96]