HESAI（HSAI）：Q3营收、利润超指引，有望全年盈利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $8.80 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 540 million RMB, exceeding guidance and showing a year-over-year increase of 21.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17.6% [2]. - The company expects to achieve GAAP profitability of 140 million RMB in Q4 2024 and aims for a non-GAAP breakeven for the entire year [2]. - The report highlights strong growth potential in ADAS products driven by major clients and new model cycles, with a stable gross margin above 40% expected to contribute to profitability in 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 revenue was 540 million RMB, with a gross margin of 47.7%, significantly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 38.2% [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 21.2 billion RMB, 32.2 billion RMB, and 47.0 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a slight decrease due to changes in product pricing and structure [3][10]. ADAS Product Performance - ADAS laser radar sales reached 130,000 units in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from 40,600 units in the same period last year, with expectations for Q4 2024 sales to reach around 200,000 units [4]. - The company has secured new partnerships with major automotive brands, including SAIC Volkswagen and a top Japanese OEM, which are expected to enhance ADAS product adoption [4]. Autonomous Driving and Robotics - The total sales of autonomous driving and robotics laser radars were 4,295 units in Q3 2024, impacted by production halts from major clients [5]. - The company anticipates benefits from the accelerated commercialization of Robotaxi and expanding applications of laser radar in logistics and campus scenarios [5]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its gross margin forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 43.2%, 41.4%, and 40.5% respectively, reflecting improved profitability due to chip integration and scale [11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 230.92 million RMB, with an EPS of 1.84 RMB, indicating a significant turnaround from previous losses [17].