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10月经济数据点评：经济边际企稳回升，政策效应显现
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-11-27 04:17

Consumption and Investment - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 39.2% year-on-year, contributing to a 1.75 percentage point increase in the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods[1] - Fixed asset investment reached 42.32 trillion RMB in the first ten months, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining stable growth[1] Export Performance - China's total goods trade volume reached 36.02 trillion RMB in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with exports amounting to 20.8 trillion RMB, up 6.7%[2] - In October, the export value in RMB terms increased significantly by 11.2% year-on-year, highlighting strong export performance[2] Industrial and Service Sector Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year in October, indicating stable industrial production[2] - The service production index increased by 6.3% year-on-year in October, with financial services growing by 10.2%[2] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak price growth[2] Tax Revenue Improvement - In October, tax revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while general public budget revenue rose by 5.5%, indicating signs of economic stabilization[3] Future Outlook - The economic stabilization trend is expected to continue, supported by incremental policies and special government bonds aimed at boosting consumption[3] - The issuance of 6 trillion RMB in local government special bonds from 2024 to 2026 is anticipated to reduce hidden debt risks[3] Risk Considerations - Potential over-expectation of fiscal stimulus could lead to increased government bond supply, impacting the bond market negatively[3] - A stronger-than-expected economic recovery may also pose risks of adjustment in the bond market[3]