化工行业周报：2024年11月第3周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry in China [2]. Core Viewpoints - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The increasing global instability has highlighted the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [6][20]. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of November 22, Brent oil prices increased by 5.8% to $75.17 per barrel. Early in the week, oil prices strengthened due to temporary production declines in Norway, but later fell as production resumed and expectations of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts emerged. However, escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to renewed concerns over supply risks, causing oil prices to rise again. As of November 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 430.3 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 500,000 barrels [3][21]. Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases for the week were natural gas (up 19.6%), vitamin B1 (up 9.3%), and methanol (up 5.6%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 15.1%), octanol (down 6.2%), and SBS (down 5.5%). Monthly price changes showed natural gas leading with a 34.3% increase, followed by vitamin B1 (up 16.9%) and vitamin E (up 13.5%). The largest monthly declines were in butadiene (down 24.8%), liquid chlorine (down 20.9%), and styrene-butadiene rubber (down 14.7%) [4][22]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were butyl acrylate (up 117.1%), hydrogen peroxide (up 66.7%), and styrene (up 30.1%). The largest declines were in the price spread of succinic anhydride BDO (down 64.8%), MTP (down 29.8%), and carbon black (down 20.0%). Monthly changes showed succinic anhydride BDO price spread increasing by 197.7%, while the largest monthly decline was in hydrogen peroxide price spread (down 1100.0%) [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Recent profit improvement in core product MDI, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects. - Huamao Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase. - Jinhui Zhaofeng (002597, Buy): A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in product demand. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated): A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate rock market conditions and potential for increased dividends [6][20].