机械行业年度策略：顺周期机械复苏、新质生产力成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the mechanical industry [5][42]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with a focus on demand recovery in specific sub-sectors and the growth of new productive forces [5][10]. - The report highlights that the mechanical sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 4.57%, lagging behind the CSI 300's 12.13% by 7.56 percentage points [4][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The mechanical industry index shows a trend of oscillating upward in 2024, but remains weaker than the CSI 300 index [66]. - The industry has a low valuation compared to historical levels, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 30.4 times, placing it in the 48.2 percentile of the past decade [73]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new recovery cycle, with significant growth in excavator and loader sales observed in 2024 [6][90]. - Excavator sales turned positive in April 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1% in October 2024 [90]. - The report emphasizes the global competitiveness of China's engineering machinery industry, with leading companies like SANY and XCMG significantly increasing their overseas revenue [100][108]. 3. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a sustained recovery, with new ship price indices and key metrics on the rise, indicating a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist [6][27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the shipbuilding sector, such as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China Shipbuilding Defense [6]. 4. Mining and Energy Equipment - The mining machinery and coal machinery sectors are benefiting from increased fixed asset investment in upstream mining industries, leading to sustained demand and performance growth [7][9]. - The report highlights the potential for oil and gas equipment to benefit from a global recovery in traditional oil and gas investments [7]. 5. Robotics and AI Equipment - The industrial robotics sector is at a cyclical recovery point, with long-term benefits expected from China's manufacturing upgrades and the growth of humanoid robots [10]. - AI-related equipment is anticipated to see a resurgence in demand, particularly in liquid cooling, 3C equipment, and semiconductor equipment [10].