宏观观点：特朗普新任期：内阁团结一致，政策推进提速

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Trump's new cabinet appointments reflect a unified approach, likely leading to more efficient policy implementation[2] - Key policy focus areas for the new term include tax cuts and tariffs, with expectations for faster rollout compared to the first term[2] - The "3-3-3" plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028 and increase GDP growth to 3%[19] Group 2: Policy Implementation Challenges - Legislative challenges may hinder the fulfillment of campaign promises, particularly those requiring Congressional approval[23] - Policies that can be enacted via executive orders, such as tariffs and immigration control, are expected to be prioritized[24] - Historical data shows that Trump's first term had a lower fulfillment rate of campaign promises compared to predecessors, with 55 fulfilled, 24 compromised, and 23 unfulfilled[27] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The actual implementation of policies may deviate from campaign promises due to political dynamics and judicial oversight[36] - The lack of sufficient funding may limit the effectiveness of immigration enforcement measures, potentially reducing their impact on employment and inflation[35]