汽车行业24年数据点评系列十六：乘用车：以旧换新政策刺激效果进一步显现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [9] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand for passenger cars in October 2024 showed stronger performance than normal seasonality, driven by the effects of the vehicle replacement policy [26][41] - The cumulative sales of passenger cars in the first ten months of 2024 reached 17.81 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [26] - The inventory reduction in the passenger car industry exceeded expectations, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio dropping to 1.9 by the end of October 2024 [44][46] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with October sales of NEVs reaching 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 64.4% [71] - The market share of domestic brands in the passenger car segment increased to 65.6% in October 2024, up 10.5 percentage points year-on-year [57] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Car Demand and Policies - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and local subsidies has significantly boosted demand for mid-to-low-end models [19][26] - In October 2024, the sales of passenger cars under 100,000 yuan showed remarkable growth, with models priced below 50,000 yuan increasing by 165.1% compared to previous months [32] 2. Inventory and Sales Performance - As of October 2024, the passenger car industry inventory stood at 3.571 million units, with a reduction of 91,000 units in October [44] - The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio indicates a healthy market, primarily due to proactive inventory management by both domestic and joint venture manufacturers [46] 3. New Energy Vehicle Market - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 49.8% in wholesale terms and 51.4% in insurance terms in October 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [71] - Cumulative sales of NEVs in the first ten months of 2024 reached 8.228 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 46.2% [71] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends, including BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng Motors, as well as traditional automakers like Changan and Great Wall Motors [143] - Key component suppliers such as Minth Group and Nanjing Zheng Coal Machine are also highlighted for their potential [143]