储能行业2025年度策略：百舸争流千帆竞，唯有龙头破浪前

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The growth trends in the US, China, and Europe are clear, with emerging markets embarking on a new journey. It is expected that global new installed capacity will reach 261 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - The price of the energy storage industry chain is expected to continue to decline in 2024, creating favorable conditions for downstream demand. Global energy storage installations are projected to grow rapidly, with new installations expected to be 185 GWh and 261 GWh in 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 78% and 41% [1] Summary by Sections Demand - The energy storage industry is experiencing a significant price drop, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices down approximately 18% and lithium iron phosphate storage cell prices down about 32% since the beginning of the year [69] - The average bidding price for domestic 2-hour energy storage systems has fallen to 0.6 CNY/Wh, while overseas prices have dropped to 0.26 USD/Wh [69] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with new installations in traditional markets like China and the US showing significant increases, while European household storage demand is slowing down [69] Emerging Markets - In Australia, frequent negative electricity prices and a large number of planned projects are expected to drive significant energy storage demand, with anticipated large storage projects of approximately 10 GWh and 13 GWh coming online in 2025 and 2026 [82] - Saudi Arabia is accelerating its green transition, with a planned procurement scale of 18.6 GWh for large storage projects in 2024, leading to rapid growth in installations in 2025 [84] - Chile has a robust pipeline of energy storage projects, with approximately 7 GWh under construction and 20 GWh approved, primarily driven by solar energy [86] Europe - In Germany, household storage demand is slowing due to stable residential electricity prices, with new installations down 14% year-on-year [91] - The share of wind and solar energy generation is increasing, leading to higher returns for large storage projects, with expected new installations of 6.7 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 158% [91][106] - Italy's innovative tender mechanism is expected to stimulate large storage demand, with significant projects already in the pipeline [110] United States - The US is experiencing high growth in large storage installations, with a year-on-year increase of 87% in the first half of the year [41] - The anticipated battery tariff is expected to accelerate project construction in 2025, with new installations projected to be 40 GWh and 52 GWh in 2024 and 2025, respectively [41] China - The share of independent energy storage is significantly increasing, with independent storage accounting for 68% of new installations in Q3 2024, up 17 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with new installations projected to be 85 GWh and 111 GWh in 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 66% and 30% [1] Industry Expansion - Domestic companies are accelerating their international expansion, with approximately 38 GWh of overseas contracts signed from January to November 2024 [54] - The competitive landscape is expected to favor leading companies with strong technology, performance, and financial capabilities [54] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading energy storage system integrators with high overseas shipment ratios and vertical integration capabilities, as well as companies with strong product and channel advantages in household storage [1]