S1130525060003 gantanhuan gjzq.com.cn S1130525080003 tangyuqing gjzq.com.cn S1130514100001 zhaohc gjzq.com.cn S1130525070006 wangbenben gjzq.com.cn S1130523080002 heguanzhou gjzq.com.cn S1130525070004 majudong gjzq.com.cn ASH 投资逻辑 创新药板块有所反弹，预计前期调整已较为充分，12-1 月行业密集催化，继续看好后续行情。10 月 30-11 月 3 日国 家医保局开展的药品目录谈判协商工作顺利完成，结果将于 12 月第一个周末在广州线上线下同步发布。关注皮肤科 国产生物创新药产品医保纳入情况，包括特应性皮炎（IL4 单抗），银屑病（IL17 单抗）等。12 月 6-9 日，美国临床 血液学会 ASH 即将召开，多个差异化血液学产品最近数据即将披露。关注百济神州（BTK、Bcl-2、BTK CDAC）、诺诚 健华（Bcl-2、BTK）、迪哲医药（JAK1、LYN/BTK）、维立志博（GP ...

公募基础设施REITs周报 2025/11/29 2 二级市场价量表现 二级市场估值情况 REITs 2025/11/24~2025/11/28 REITs 0.19% 97.02 2.82% 0.27% 0.24% 2.28% 1.34% > > >REITs> > 市场相关性统计 一级市场跟踪 3 REITs & & REITs REITs 数据来源： Wind，国金证券研究所 4 REITs REIT 3.65 % REIT 2.67 % REIT 2.52 % REIT 1.95 % REIT 1.89 % REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT 0.56 0.34 0.26 0.22 0.21 REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT 17.07 % 10.13 % 7.36 % 6.76 % 6.62 % | 上市首日回 上市以来 上市日期 发行价(元) | | | 上市以来成交量 | 本周成交量 | 上周成交量 | 本周换手率 | 上周换手率 | 本周回报 | | 上周回报 今年以来回报 本周收盘价走势 | 基金代码 政委屈称 行业类型 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB for the first half of FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion RMB, up 5.3%, aligning with expectations [2]. - The company's down jacket business saw revenue of 6.568 billion RMB, growing 8.3% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in both direct and franchise channels [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, although the down jacket gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% due to a higher proportion of lower-margin distribution channels [4]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, supported by successful new product launches and effective inventory management [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB in the first half of FY2026, with a net profit of 1.189 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% increase respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment generated 6.568 billion RMB in revenue, with the main brand, Bosideng, contributing 5.719 billion RMB, showing an 8.3% increase [3]. - The online channel revenue for down jackets was 1.383 billion RMB, up 2.4%, while offline direct and franchise channels reported revenues of 2.411 billion RMB and 3.701 billion RMB, growing 6.6% and 7.9% respectively [3]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin increased slightly to 50.0%, with effective cost control reflected in the marketing management expense ratio [4]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days compared to the previous year, indicating improved inventory management [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.920 billion RMB, 4.322 billion RMB, and 4.739 billion RMB for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [5].

事件 2025 年 11 月 26 日，公司公告其全资子公司北新防水有限公司将 以 4.18 亿元的总价，分别受让远大洪雨(唐山)防水材料有限公司 和远大洪雨(宿州)建材科技有限公司各 80%股权。 事件点评 （1）"防水翼"再添一员，补强华北份额。2019 年公司通过联合 重组进入防水材料业务领域，2019-2022 年进入收购高峰期。本次 收购在 2022 年即公布过收购计划、但并未履行，即拟以 6.0 亿元 的对价收购唐山远大洪雨 63.3%以及宿州远大洪雨 70%股权，本次 收购比例和对价有所变化，对价下调估计和防水行业较 22 年景气 度下滑有关。完成收购后，公司预计新增沥青防水卷材/高分子防 水卷材/防水涂料产能 12000 万平米/4000 万平米/159000 吨。 2025H1 北新防水业务收入 24.9 亿左右，同比增长 6%左右，实现 净利润 1.4 亿，同比增长 6%，净利率约 5.6%。 （2）结合拟收购标的的行业影响力看、收购估值相对合理。从行 业估值水平来看，东方雨虹/科顺股份 pb-lf 分别为 1.44x/1.27x。 1）公司收购远大洪雨（唐山）80%股权的对价为 3.36 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -5.80%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -2.72% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and quarterly contracts increased across all contracts, with the SSE 50 showing the largest increase of 18.96% and the CSI 500 the smallest at 13.60% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts as of last Friday were -4.13%, -10.17%, -12.27%, and -1.89% for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IH while IC and IM saw a narrowing [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts compared to the next contracts were at the 96.70%, 90.20%, 89.30%, and 89.10% percentiles for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a historical distribution skewed to the right [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Market Expectations - The estimated impacts on index points for the next year from the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 77.00, 82.49, 68.09, and 64.38 respectively [4][12] - Following the end of the main dividend distribution period, the influence of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, with a notable increase in market risk aversion reflected in the declines of all four contracts [4][12] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among seven brokerages indicates that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for upward movement in the medium term [5][36] - The AI industry chain, upstream resource sectors, and high-dividend assets are viewed positively, benefiting from industry trends, improved supply-demand dynamics, and policy support [5][36]

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回落。离岸美元流动 性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回落，除科创 50 外，其余主要指数的波动率回升。行业上，化工、纺服、房地产、消费者服务、商 贸零售、轻工等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，电新、电子的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、电新、机械、有色等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、房地产、非银等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被上调。行业上，金融地产、机械、军工、农林牧渔、钢铁等板块 25/26 年净利润预 测均被上调。指数上，中证 500、沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调，创业板指、上证 50 则分别被下调/上调。 风格上，小盘成长、中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘价值均被下调，中盘成长分别被上调/下调， 大盘成长/价值则分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度回落，整体继续大幅净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径， ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数下跌，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%；而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%，同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动，在海外流动性收紧下，价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大，量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到，在市场弱势情况下，对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好，导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周，在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下，我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为负斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...

业绩简评 11 月 21 日公司披露 25Q3 报告，Q3 营收 57.97 亿元（+28%），调 整后归母净利润为 7.67 亿元（同比+11.7%）,调整后归母净利率 13.2%（同比-2pct）。 经营分析 3Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收 29.09/23.12/5.75 亿元（同 比（+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%）。 国内名创：Q3 同店高个位数正增、开店环比高增，积极打磨自有 IP。Q1/Q2/Q3/M10 国内名创同店中个位数下降/低个位数上升/高 个位数上升/低双位数上升，预计得益于积极开设 IP 大店、换址 或扩建优化同店；截至 Q3 门店数量达到 4407 家（同/环比+157/+ 102 家），其中一/二/三线门店同比+21/+46/+90 家。截至 11 月公 司签约 16 位潮玩艺术家，并积极打磨自有 IP 糯米儿等。 海外名创：增长质量提升，北美同店增长超预期。3QGMV 同比+27. 5%，同店低个位数上升，截至 3Q25 海外总门店数 3424 家，同/环 比+488/+117 家，亚洲（不含中国）/北美洲/拉丁美洲/欧洲门店 数量分别为 1748 ...

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落至 50% 本期交易热度类指标分位值多回落，1/10Y、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、3 个百分点，全市场换手率分位 值回落 12 个百分点、机构杠杆分位值下降 6 个百分点，仅 TL/T 多空比分位值回升 27 个百分点。上市公司理财买入 量、股债比价分位值回落幅度也较大，分别为 35、29 个百分点。除此外，仅基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量、政策利 差、商品比价等少数指标分位值不同程度回升。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，全市场化换手率、上市公司理财 买入量均由中性区间回落至偏冷区间，基金-农商买入量则由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 交易热度类指标多回落 ①交易热度中，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、12、6、 ...