那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落至 50% 本期交易热度类指标分位值多回落，1/10Y、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、3 个百分点，全市场换手率分位 值回落 12 个百分点、机构杠杆分位值下降 6 个百分点，仅 TL/T 多空比分位值回升 27 个百分点。上市公司理财买入 量、股债比价分位值回落幅度也较大，分别为 35、29 个百分点。除此外，仅基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量、政策利 差、商品比价等少数指标分位值不同程度回升。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，全市场化换手率、上市公司理财 买入量均由中性区间回落至偏冷区间，基金-农商买入量则由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 交易热度类指标多回落 ①交易热度中，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、12、6、 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 4.78%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 13；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 3.77%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 25.58%，在申万 3 1 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 13.18%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 西门子能源上调燃机扩产目标，持续看好燃机涡轮叶片龙头应流股份。11 月 20 日，西门子能源在 Capital Mar ket Day 表示，24 财年燃机产能 17GW，预计 25-27 年提升至 22GW，28-30 年超过 30GW。西门子能源本次给出 28 年之后的扩产目标，我们认为此举一方面反映了燃机需求端超预期，另一方面，主机厂的扩产目标的完成需要 依靠涡轮叶片等上游核心零部件环节的扩产。应流股份是国内涡轮叶片龙头，2025 年 7 月，西门子能源高层访 问应流集团并表示：未来希望应流在西门子主力机型上承担更多责任 ...

Electricity Consumption - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[5] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 13.2%, 6.2%, and 17.1% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 23.9%[5] - The tertiary industry and urban-rural residents contributed 5.9 percentage points to the overall electricity consumption growth[5] Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, up from the previous value of 4.3%[7] Japan's Bond Yield - As of November 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, marking a significant increase and reaching levels not seen since 2008[17] - The 40-year bond yield peaked at 3.73%, while the 30-year yield reached 3.36%[17] China-Japan Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, impacting Japanese tourism and consumer stocks significantly[10] - China's suspension of Japanese seafood imports due to nuclear contamination concerns has led to a drastic drop in Japan's seafood export value to China, falling over 90% from 2022 levels[10] Youth Unemployment - In October, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 was 17.3%, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 7.2%[13] - The total estimated unemployed population in China for the 16-59 age group is approximately 41.95 million, with an overall estimate of around 45 million[13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The research highlights the significant generational differences in consumer behavior and production capabilities across Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with Thailand resembling a "miniature" version of the Western consumer market, Vietnam in a rapid growth phase, and Cambodia reflecting characteristics of less developed nations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Southeast Asia, particularly in consumer goods and technology-driven sectors, as companies leverage local production capabilities and growing consumer markets [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Thailand is compared to a "miniature" Western market, showcasing a mature consumer culture and a well-developed service industry, making it a reference point for companies looking to expand into Western markets [1] - Vietnam is characterized as a rapidly developing economy, with a GDP projected to reach approximately 62.69 trillion VND (around 4,700 USD) in 2024, indicating a significant consumer market potential [1] - Cambodia is noted for its low average income and high income disparity, with consumer spending primarily focused on essential goods, suggesting a slower penetration of discretionary spending [1] 2. Segment Tracking - Xiaomi Group is exploring the future of smart home technology with its Xiaomi Miloco initiative, aiming to enhance user interaction and privacy through advanced AI models [9][10] - The pet food sector saw significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with sales for the brand Guibao exceeding 1 billion RMB, reflecting a trend towards premium pet products [11][12] - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Tuozhu achieving record sales during major shopping events, indicating strong market potential [21][22] 3. Macro Consumption Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with service sector prices rising, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [35] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in the month-on-month trend, suggesting a potential stabilization in production costs [45] - Online sales data from major platforms indicated a decline in the home appliance sector, with specific brands like Ecovacs and Roborock showing positive growth despite overall market challenges [50]

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外 AI 应用中 Claude 与 Perplexity 活跃度下滑，Gemini 继续上升；国内 Kimi 活跃度快速增长，其余应 用保持平稳。Google 正式开启 Gemini 3 时代，发布 Gemini 3 Pro 及强化推理模式 Deep Think，前者以 1501 分 登顶 LMArena 榜单，SimpleQA 准确率达 72.1%刷新纪录。同期推出大幅提升文本渲染能力的 Nano Banana Pro 图 像模型及 Antigravity 智能体开发平台，新模型已面向开发者开放。 - 英伟达 2026 财年三季度营收与盈利全面超预期，数据中心与网络业务强劲增长，受益于 NVLink 规模化部署及 Spectrum-X/Quantum-X 平台需求提升。Blackwell 架构进入规模放量阶段，GB300 成为主要出货产品，整机柜交 付能力趋于成熟，并形成至 2026 年底约 5000 亿美元的收入可见性。公司强调推理侧算力需求因"思维链"呈指 数级扩张。虽财报后估 ...

本周观点 回调之后的选择： 投资逻辑 回调之后的选择。1）市场在经历美联储降息博弈和 AI 分歧讨论的夹击之下走弱，显而易见的是高风险资产加密 货币大跌且未见企稳，AI 泡沫的讨论还在蔓延，短期波动或加剧，市场认可 AI 的能力和效率提升逻辑，但是对 增量叙事和商业落地的担心在上升，涨多了之后自然会回调。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效 率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的Google、 META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，高 风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，我们谨慎观察该板块的变化。 3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板块中长期维度受益于 降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们对交易平台资产持续 看多，短期可能跟随市场流动性、加密货币回调，但是交易平台的估值有优势，回调之后是加仓的好机会。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美 ...

证券板块 报行合一继续深化，人身险产品费用分摊规则细化。11 月 21 日，中国精算师协会发布《人身保险产品费用分摊指引》， 核心内容如下：1）适用范围：明确适用于人身险公司经营的一年期以上个人长期保险产品的费用分摊。2）明确费用 分摊范围，四类不参与分摊：以实质重于形式的原则分摊，中介手续费、代理人佣金等为变动费用；业务推动费、宣 传费、培训费为其他变动费用；其余需分摊在产品中的业务及管理费为固定费用；非源于销售和经营本公司保险产品 发生的支出、资管部门相关费用、审计费和董办等不直接归属于保险合同的费用、特殊投入项目费用等可辨别的非持 续或者一次性发生费用可不参与保险产品费用分摊。3）明确费用分摊规则：按照"先认定、后分摊"原则，一是针对 销售渠道的费用分摊，《指引》将保险公司总部及各分支机构的费用分摊部门，划分为前台销售部门、中台运营部门 和后台管理部门，手续费和佣金直接认定至相应渠道；二是针对各保单年度的费用分摊，手续费和佣金直接认定为首 年和续年相关费用，固定费用可参考上述分摊方法分摊至首年和续年，明确对新单与存量业务相应费用保持逻辑一致 的分摊方法，不将固定费用在新单和存量业务间进行调节。其中，首年 ...

Global Market Volatility - The global stock markets experienced a collective pullback due to three main factors: increased financial fragility from overseas liquidity issues, protective options expirations causing volatility, and concerns over the sustainability of capital expenditures by major US tech companies [2][13][24] - The overnight mortgage rates in the US are inverted with the federal funds rate, indicating tight liquidity in the US money market [14][18] - The capital expenditure of major data center operators has significantly increased, with Oracle's capital expenditure exceeding its operating cash flow [24][25] Industry Development: Key Node Similar to 1997 Internet Boom - The internet boom from 1995 to 2000 can be divided into three phases, with the current AI industry potentially at a similar critical juncture as the internet in 1997 [3][29] - The first phase saw significant profit growth in upstream internet equipment companies, while the second phase marked the rise of internet service providers and the emergence of companies like Amazon [29][30] - The third phase experienced rapid revenue growth in downstream internet companies but deteriorating cash flow, leading to a decline in stock prices for these companies [30][31] Potential Impacts of AI Development on the Market - Three potential paths for AI development are identified: the emergence of significant applications leading to continued market growth, stagnation in AI applications causing tech giants to halt capital expenditures, or tech giants maintaining capital expenditures despite a lack of application progress [4][44][47] - The current situation reflects a mix of these scenarios, with tech giants increasing capital expenditures to maintain market share and reduce labor costs through AI [4][53] Highlights in Non-Tech Sectors - The US real estate market is in a recovery phase, with declining mortgage rates boosting existing home sales [5][56] - There is a continuous increase in the shipment of industrial machinery and primary metals, indicating ongoing recovery in equipment investment [5][56][58] - The labor market shows pressure with rising unemployment rates and slowing wage growth, which may benefit emerging market manufacturing recovery [5][56] Focus on China's Market Opportunities - The recent global market volatility is not seen as a directional choice for macro and industry trends, but rather as a reflection of the true driving forces behind future opportunities in the Chinese market [6] - Traditional manufacturing companies in China have realized performance amidst the global tech boom, suggesting that physical assets and manufacturing capacity will be the foundation of a potential bull market in China [6]

本周观点 投资建议 建议关注国内生成式大模型龙头科大讯飞；AI 硬件有望成为应用落地的新载体，建议关注海康威视、虹软科技、 禾赛等；AI 相关功能打磨能够带动付费率、Arpu 值提升，建议关注迈富时等。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 11 月 17 日，阿里巴巴上线了一款名为「千问 APP」的 C 端人工智能应用，该产品为面向全球的个人 AI 助手， 将阿里自研的通义千问大模型能力整合到一个统一的入口中。千问 APP 基于阿里最新发布的 Qwen3 系列大 模型构建，包括在 SWE-Bench 等基准测试中表现优异的 Qwen3-Max 基础模型，以及在代码、视觉理解和全 态交互方面具有竞争力的专用模型。11 月 19 日，谷歌 DeepMind 近日发布了多模态 Al 模型 Gemini 3 系列， 并推出了面向智能体开发的 Google Antiqravity 平台，以此提升模型的推理能力、多模态理解及代码开发效率。 Gemini 3 系列包含 Gemini 3 Pro 和 Gemini 3 DeepThink 模式。该模型在多模态推理任 ...

继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。我们认为，AI 需求持续强劲，英伟达 AI 服务器四季度出货量提速，ASIC 迎来爆发式增长，产业链积极拉货，整体来看，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 电子周观点： 英伟达指引超预期，AI 需求持续旺盛。11 月 20 日，英伟达披露 FY26Q3（25.8~25.10）业绩，FY26Q3 公司营 收 570 亿美元，同比+62%，环比+22%，其中数据中心收入 512 亿美元，同比+66%，环比+25%。FY26Q3 公 司 GAAP 毛利率为 73.4%，净利润为 319 亿美元，同比+65%；Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，净利润为 318 亿 美元，同比+59%，环比+23%。公司预计 FY26Q4 收入为 650 亿美元（±2%），GAAP 与 Non GAAP 毛利率分 别为 74.8±0.5 ...