宏观流动性： 上周美元指数回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回落。离岸美元流动 性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回落，除科创 50 外，其余主要指数的波动率回升。行业上，化工、纺服、房地产、消费者服务、商 贸零售、轻工等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，电新、电子的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、电新、机械、有色等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、房地产、非银等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被上调。行业上，金融地产、机械、军工、农林牧渔、钢铁等板块 25/26 年净利润预 测均被上调。指数上，中证 500、沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调，创业板指、上证 50 则分别被下调/上调。 风格上，小盘成长、中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘价值均被下调，中盘成长分别被上调/下调， 大盘成长/价值则分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度回落，整体继续大幅净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径， ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数下跌，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%；而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%，同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动，在海外流动性收紧下，价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大，量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到，在市场弱势情况下，对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好，导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周，在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下，我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为负斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...

业绩简评 11 月 21 日公司披露 25Q3 报告，Q3 营收 57.97 亿元（+28%），调 整后归母净利润为 7.67 亿元（同比+11.7%）,调整后归母净利率 13.2%（同比-2pct）。 经营分析 3Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收 29.09/23.12/5.75 亿元（同 比（+19.3%/+27.7%/+111.4%）。 国内名创：Q3 同店高个位数正增、开店环比高增，积极打磨自有 IP。Q1/Q2/Q3/M10 国内名创同店中个位数下降/低个位数上升/高 个位数上升/低双位数上升，预计得益于积极开设 IP 大店、换址 或扩建优化同店；截至 Q3 门店数量达到 4407 家（同/环比+157/+ 102 家），其中一/二/三线门店同比+21/+46/+90 家。截至 11 月公 司签约 16 位潮玩艺术家，并积极打磨自有 IP 糯米儿等。 海外名创：增长质量提升，北美同店增长超预期。3QGMV 同比+27. 5%，同店低个位数上升，截至 3Q25 海外总门店数 3424 家，同/环 比+488/+117 家，亚洲（不含中国）/北美洲/拉丁美洲/欧洲门店 数量分别为 1748 ...

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数回落至 50% 本期交易热度类指标分位值多回落，1/10Y、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、3 个百分点，全市场换手率分位 值回落 12 个百分点、机构杠杆分位值下降 6 个百分点，仅 TL/T 多空比分位值回升 27 个百分点。上市公司理财买入 量、股债比价分位值回落幅度也较大，分别为 35、29 个百分点。除此外，仅基金分歧度、基金-农商买入量、政策利 差、商品比价等少数指标分位值不同程度回升。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比仍为 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，全市场化换手率、上市公司理财 买入量均由中性区间回落至偏冷区间，基金-农商买入量则由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 交易热度类指标多回落 ①交易热度中，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆、30/10Y 国债换手率分位值分别下降 12、12、6、 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 4.78%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 13；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 3.77%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 25.58%，在申万 3 1 个一级行业分类中排名第 6；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 13.18%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 西门子能源上调燃机扩产目标，持续看好燃机涡轮叶片龙头应流股份。11 月 20 日，西门子能源在 Capital Mar ket Day 表示，24 财年燃机产能 17GW，预计 25-27 年提升至 22GW，28-30 年超过 30GW。西门子能源本次给出 28 年之后的扩产目标，我们认为此举一方面反映了燃机需求端超预期，另一方面，主机厂的扩产目标的完成需要 依靠涡轮叶片等上游核心零部件环节的扩产。应流股份是国内涡轮叶片龙头，2025 年 7 月，西门子能源高层访 问应流集团并表示：未来希望应流在西门子主力机型上承担更多责任 ...

Electricity Consumption - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[5] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 13.2%, 6.2%, and 17.1% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 23.9%[5] - The tertiary industry and urban-rural residents contributed 5.9 percentage points to the overall electricity consumption growth[5] Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, up from the previous value of 4.3%[7] Japan's Bond Yield - As of November 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, marking a significant increase and reaching levels not seen since 2008[17] - The 40-year bond yield peaked at 3.73%, while the 30-year yield reached 3.36%[17] China-Japan Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, impacting Japanese tourism and consumer stocks significantly[10] - China's suspension of Japanese seafood imports due to nuclear contamination concerns has led to a drastic drop in Japan's seafood export value to China, falling over 90% from 2022 levels[10] Youth Unemployment - In October, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 was 17.3%, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 7.2%[13] - The total estimated unemployed population in China for the 16-59 age group is approximately 41.95 million, with an overall estimate of around 45 million[13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The research highlights the significant generational differences in consumer behavior and production capabilities across Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with Thailand resembling a "miniature" version of the Western consumer market, Vietnam in a rapid growth phase, and Cambodia reflecting characteristics of less developed nations [1] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in Southeast Asia, particularly in consumer goods and technology-driven sectors, as companies leverage local production capabilities and growing consumer markets [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Thailand is compared to a "miniature" Western market, showcasing a mature consumer culture and a well-developed service industry, making it a reference point for companies looking to expand into Western markets [1] - Vietnam is characterized as a rapidly developing economy, with a GDP projected to reach approximately 62.69 trillion VND (around 4,700 USD) in 2024, indicating a significant consumer market potential [1] - Cambodia is noted for its low average income and high income disparity, with consumer spending primarily focused on essential goods, suggesting a slower penetration of discretionary spending [1] 2. Segment Tracking - Xiaomi Group is exploring the future of smart home technology with its Xiaomi Miloco initiative, aiming to enhance user interaction and privacy through advanced AI models [9][10] - The pet food sector saw significant growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with sales for the brand Guibao exceeding 1 billion RMB, reflecting a trend towards premium pet products [11][12] - The AI and 3D printing industry is experiencing high demand, with companies like Tuozhu achieving record sales during major shopping events, indicating strong market potential [21][22] 3. Macro Consumption Data - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with service sector prices rising, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [35] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of improvement in the month-on-month trend, suggesting a potential stabilization in production costs [45] - Online sales data from major platforms indicated a decline in the home appliance sector, with specific brands like Ecovacs and Roborock showing positive growth despite overall market challenges [50]

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - 本周海外 AI 应用中 Claude 与 Perplexity 活跃度下滑，Gemini 继续上升；国内 Kimi 活跃度快速增长，其余应 用保持平稳。Google 正式开启 Gemini 3 时代，发布 Gemini 3 Pro 及强化推理模式 Deep Think，前者以 1501 分 登顶 LMArena 榜单，SimpleQA 准确率达 72.1%刷新纪录。同期推出大幅提升文本渲染能力的 Nano Banana Pro 图 像模型及 Antigravity 智能体开发平台，新模型已面向开发者开放。 - 英伟达 2026 财年三季度营收与盈利全面超预期，数据中心与网络业务强劲增长，受益于 NVLink 规模化部署及 Spectrum-X/Quantum-X 平台需求提升。Blackwell 架构进入规模放量阶段，GB300 成为主要出货产品，整机柜交 付能力趋于成熟，并形成至 2026 年底约 5000 亿美元的收入可见性。公司强调推理侧算力需求因"思维链"呈指 数级扩张。虽财报后估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on high-risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, while expressing optimism for AI technology and the Macau tourism sector [3]. Core Views - The market is currently under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussions and ongoing debates about AI, leading to significant declines in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Concerns are rising regarding the sustainability of AI's commercial applications despite its recognized efficiency improvements. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology leaders with strong cash flows, such as Google, META, Microsoft, Alibaba, and Tencent, while also monitoring the application of AI in various sectors [3]. - The Macau tourism industry is highlighted as a valuable investment opportunity, benefiting from a favorable supply-demand dynamic and expected growth during the upcoming holiday periods [3]. - The report suggests that trading platforms remain attractive, with potential for accumulation following market corrections [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet 1.1.1 Education - The Chinese education index fell by 4.60%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index but underperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [11]. - New Oriental launched an AI education product, SureChinese, aimed at a broader audience, with 160,000 users across 138 countries [19]. 1.1.2 Luxury Goods & Gambling - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index decreased by 1.49%, with notable declines in major gambling stocks like Sands China and Wynn Macau [21]. - The upcoming sports events in Macau are expected to attract over 2 million tourists, boosting the local tourism sector [3]. 1.1.3 Coffee & Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, while the tea segment faces challenges due to reduced promotional activities from delivery platforms [30]. 1.1.4 E-commerce & Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index fell by 5.90%, with mixed performances among major e-commerce players [36]. - Pinduoduo reported a 9% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 108.3 billion yuan [41]. 1.2 Platforms & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index dropped by 6.86%, with mixed results among key players like iQIYI and Spotify [45]. - iQIYI reported a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year for Q3 [53]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell to $305.32 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices decreasing by 10% and 11% respectively [49]. - Futu Holdings reported a significant revenue increase of 86% year-on-year for Q3 [56]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive sector saw a mixed performance, with some companies like AutoZone and O'Reilly Auto Parts showing gains while others faced declines [60].

证券板块 报行合一继续深化，人身险产品费用分摊规则细化。11 月 21 日，中国精算师协会发布《人身保险产品费用分摊指引》， 核心内容如下：1）适用范围：明确适用于人身险公司经营的一年期以上个人长期保险产品的费用分摊。2）明确费用 分摊范围，四类不参与分摊：以实质重于形式的原则分摊，中介手续费、代理人佣金等为变动费用；业务推动费、宣 传费、培训费为其他变动费用；其余需分摊在产品中的业务及管理费为固定费用；非源于销售和经营本公司保险产品 发生的支出、资管部门相关费用、审计费和董办等不直接归属于保险合同的费用、特殊投入项目费用等可辨别的非持 续或者一次性发生费用可不参与保险产品费用分摊。3）明确费用分摊规则：按照"先认定、后分摊"原则，一是针对 销售渠道的费用分摊，《指引》将保险公司总部及各分支机构的费用分摊部门，划分为前台销售部门、中台运营部门 和后台管理部门，手续费和佣金直接认定至相应渠道；二是针对各保单年度的费用分摊，手续费和佣金直接认定为首 年和续年相关费用，固定费用可参考上述分摊方法分摊至首年和续年，明确对新单与存量业务相应费用保持逻辑一致 的分摊方法，不将固定费用在新单和存量业务间进行调节。其中，首年 ...