ETF 市场回顾 * [10] M. C. 从一级市场资金流动情况来看，上周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）已上市 ETF 资金净流入合计-350.85 亿元，其中跨境 ETF 资金净流入 32.44 亿元，商品型 ETF 资金净流入 19.15 亿元，债券型 ETF 资金净流出 7.15 亿元，股票型 ETF 资金 净流出 395.29 亿元。 在股票型 ETF 中，宽基 ETF 上周资金净流入-206.93 亿元，上周上证 50ETF 资金净流入 25.61 亿元，创业板综合 ETF 资金净流入 5.92 亿元，上证 580ETF 资金净流入 4.52 亿元，创业板 ETF 资金净流出 67.48 亿元，中证 500ETF 资金净 流出约 45.76 亿元。 主题行业 ETF 上周资金净流入-219.64 亿元。上周消费板块 ETF 资金净流入额为 5.19 亿元，医药生物、周期、高端制 造、金融地产、科技板块 ETF 资金净流出额分别为 12.49 亿元、19.63 亿元、24.28 亿元、25.08 亿元、145.05 亿元。 上周 43 只非货币 ETF 申报，包含宽基 ETF、港股通 ...

行业分类难以满足多元需求，主题概念投资快速兴起 随着资本市场的快速发展，上市公司的业务结构愈发多元，仅依赖传统的行业或风格分类难以完整刻画企业的业务特 征，信息损失也随之增加。概念指数是具有共性受益逻辑的一系列股票的集合，其成份样本通常涵盖一个或多个行业 的上市公司，并且在二级市场股价具有明显联动性，可以很好解释股票的收益变化。 Wind 热门概念指数基于客观量价评分，结合政策和产业等因素主观确定的热门指数，具有领涨性和活跃性，采用等权 重方式进行编制。我们首先尝试基于月度和周度动量因子构建热门概念指数轮动策略，但是因子和策略效果相对有限， 未能获得满意的效果。 基于 TimeMixer 模型的热门概念指数轮动策略构建 我们尝试先构建个股的 Alpha 因子，将其聚合到概念指数上。由于 Wind 热门概念指数均为等权重指数，所以按照指 数成分股加权方式和等权加权方式效果完全相同，我们基于此方式先将个股因子聚合到概念指数上。聚合后的指数因 子 IC 均值为 7.27%，多头年化超额收益率为 30.77%，多头信息比率为 1.28。 基于聚合后的因子构建指数轮动策略，每周选择模型得分最高的 10 个概念指数进行等 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 12 月 2 日公司披露 FY26Q2（25.8~25.10）业绩，公司 FY26Q2 实现营收 2.68 亿美元，同比增长 272%，环比增长 20%， GAAP/Non-GAAP 毛利率分别为 67.5%/67.7%，GAAP/Non-GAAP 净利 润分别为 8264、1.28 亿美元，分别同比转正/+943%。 公司预计 FY26Q3 实现营收 3.35~3.45 亿美元，GAAP/Non-GAAP 毛 利率分别为 63.8%~65.8%/64.0%~66.0%。公司预计 FY26 全年营收 同比增长 170%。公司预计长期毛利率为 63~65%。 经营分析 AEC 仍然为公司主要增长动力，客户多元化持续推进。公司本季度 共有四家客户营收占比超 10%，占比分别为 42%、24%、16%、11%。 公司超 10%营收占比客户已经达到四家，体现公司产品持续导入， 以及客户多元化的持续推进。 公司 PCIe 相关新产品进展顺利，公司公布未来产品 roadmap，公 司新产品有望帮助公司实现更高 TAM，同时保障公司长期增长持续 性。公司预计 PCIe 产品将在 FY27 产生显著收 ...

本月非制造业 PMI 下降 0.6 个点至 49.5，是排除公共卫生事件干扰以外，首次落在临界值以下。其中建筑业景气度磨 底，对非制造业拖累较大的是服务业，一方面与假期效应消退的季节性因素有关，另一方面也与地产行业销售低迷等 行业因素有关。 接近年底，制造业进入传统淡季，11 月制造业经济活动热度虽然并未有超预期表现，但是仍然可以看到一些积极因素。 一是新兴产业景气度率先回升，静待其对于传统行业以及就业收入的拉动和改善；二是供需不平衡产生的库存问题持 续消化，供给侧反内卷也有助于达成新的平衡；三是价格向上趋势不变，明年或有持续修复预期。总体来看，新型政 策性金融工具目前对于产业和市场的影响还停留在融资环境、投资、招工等前期阶段，实物工作量的形成落地效果还 需等待明年进一步验证。 本月 PMI 在临界值以下弱回升 0.2 个点 本月制造业 PMI 表现与季节性大致相仿。历史上 11 月制造业 PMI 多以小幅回升为主，主要由十月内存在长假，工作 日较少导致的低基数所致。分项方面，除产成品库存指数回落以外，其它分项指标均有不同程度回升，但绝对值大多 落在收缩区间。具体来看，生产端依然保持相对韧性，生产指数回升 0 ...

10 月规模以上工业企业利润增速为-5.5%，前值为 21.6%，由正转负。从量价利润率上看，10 月量降价升，营收利润 率同比明显偏弱。工业增加值同比为 4.9%，前值为 6.5%；PPI 同比为-2.1%，前值为-2.3%；收去年基数走高、费用率 （主要是财务费用）上行等因素影响，营业收入利润率同比从 18.7%回落至-5.7%。 11 月 PMI 边际回升 0.2 个百分点，或主要受季节性因素影响。需要关注 PMI 中价格指数表现强于近期期货市场价格表 现，或与其他商品价格增速好转有关。统计局数据显示 2025 年 11 月中旬与 11 月上旬相比，30 种产品价格上涨，17 种下降，3 种持平，主要是有色、化工、煤炭等商品价格边际好转。 美国"黑五"购物季期间，消费者也更趋谨慎。据全美零售联合会数据，今年感恩节购物季预计吸引 1.87 亿消费者， 创下历史新高，占美国总人口一半以上。但消费者支出意愿明显下降，德勤调查显示消费者平均计划支出同比减少 4% 至 622 美元。 风险提示 1）中美贸易摩擦、关税上调和全球供应链调整，或致出口波动及企业利润下滑等风险加大； 2）全球地缘政治局势变化及国际市场波 ...

核心观点： 机器人：景气度加速向上，产业链即将进入订单释放及量产阶段。 优必选再获 1.43 亿元大单，全年人形机器人订单超 13 亿元领跑全球。优必选中标江西九江市人形机器人数据采集与 训练中心项目，金额达 1.43 亿元，推动其 2025 年人形机器人累计订单提升至 13 亿元，继续保持行业领先。公司自 9 月以来连续斩获多笔亿元级大单，显示工业级人形机器人需求加速释放，Walker S2 量产与交付能力同步兑现。 智元机器人发布灵心平台，开启人格化智能体规模化应用。智元机器人推出灵心平台（LinkSoul），实现机器人在人 设、声音、行为、记忆与任务等五大维度的全面自定义，推动机器人从执行工具向人格化智能体升级。平台采用无代 码模块化设计，让用户像"搭积木"一样构建独特的智能伙伴，可广泛落地于家庭、商场、教育与康养等多场景。灵心 的上线构建出类似"机器人智能体应用商店"的生态基础设施，标志具身智能从技术突破迈向大规模商业化的新阶段。 宁波华翔子公司华翔启源参投瓴智基金，提升一级产业资源投资能力。11 月 24 日，宁波华翔子公司（宁波华翔启源 科技有限公司）拟参与投资上海瓴智新创创业投资合伙企业(有限合 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating a potential recovery in performance for undervalued leading brokerages as mergers progress and international business expands [3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant divergence between performance and valuation, with high earnings growth but stock prices under pressure, leading to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.35x, which is at the 33rd percentile over the past decade [3]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Focus on listed brokerages with better-than-expected Q3 results and a current PB of only 1.35x, recommending firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [3]. 2. Investment in Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from gene therapy investments [3]. 3. Attention to multi-financial firms with strong growth, particularly Hong Kong Exchanges, which will benefit from deepening connectivity and increased trading activity from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [3]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The brokerage sector's performance has lagged behind the market, with a year-to-date increase of 0% and a 15 percentage point underperformance compared to the broader market [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for performance recovery among leading brokerages due to ongoing mergers and international business expansion [3]. Insurance Sector - The introduction of innovative drugs into group health insurance in Shanghai is expected to accelerate by the end of December 2025, with over 80 high-value innovative drugs anticipated to be included [4]. - The new group insurance product will have a lower threshold for coverage compared to existing medical insurance, with an individual deductible of 35,000 yuan, effectively mitigating catastrophic financial risks for individuals [4]. - Initial sales projections for the new group insurance are estimated to be between 500 million to 1 billion yuan annually, with the potential for significant payouts for innovative drugs [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a double-digit growth in new insurance premiums due to the upcoming "opening red" season and the favorable long-term outlook for the insurance sector [5]. - It recommends focusing on leading insurance companies with strong business quality and low liability costs, as well as property insurance companies benefiting from regulatory changes [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.57%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average price of 11.19 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.87% [21]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the market, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing improvement due to better downstream demand [28]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [35]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2991.22 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry. The number of breeding sows is decreasing, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feathered chicken prices are improving due to better demand and supply contraction [4][28]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.80 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a consumption peak [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2218.57 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [48][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. However, it faced a Non-IFRS net loss of 16 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [2]. - The local core business revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [3]. - New business revenue reached 28 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth of 15.9% year-on-year, although it still incurred an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 364.1 billion yuan, 419.9 billion yuan, and 486.7 billion yuan, respectively. The Non-IFRS net profits are expected to be -18.1 billion yuan in 2025, 16.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.2 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The operating income growth rate is projected to be 7.88% in 2025, followed by 15.31% in 2026 and 15.91% in 2027 [10]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating efficiency and user engagement in the new business segments, particularly in grocery retail and international expansion [4].

ASIC 发展势头强劲，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件。谷歌 Gemini 3 表现出色， Gemini 3 Pro 支持 100 万 Token 的超大上下文窗口，标准输出限制为 64,000 Token。Gemini 3 最让人兴奋的创新是 Deep Think 模式。这 个模式通过内部的思维链过程，模拟人类专家的"慢思考"系统。面对复杂问题时，它不会立即输出答案，而是先 进行多步骤的规划、自我反思和路径验证。Gemini 3 Pro 在 LMArena 排行榜上以 1501 分的成绩位列榜首，在 几乎所有主要 AI 基准测试中都远超上一代。谷歌除了大模型表现出色外，自研 AI 芯片（TPU）也发展较快，除 了自用外，大模型及 CSP 厂商也开始积极采用，根据 The Information 报道，Meta 正在洽谈未来向谷歌采购数 十亿美元的 AI 芯片（TPU），用于其将在 2027 年建成的数据中心，并可能在 2026 年先选择通过 Google Cloud 租用这些芯片算力。10 月 24 日，大模型厂商 Anthropic 与谷歌共同宣布，谷歌将向 Anthropic 供应至多 100 ...