存量市场特征 超长信用债收益率边际回调。本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14，下同）因长债利差压缩至 24 年以来低位，机构投资者 对超长信用债配置态度出现分歧，止盈行为的出现引起超长信用债收益率小幅回调。与上周相比，2.4%-2.5%收益率 的存量超长信用债只数增长至 299 只。 一级发行情况 超长信用债供给探底。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 23 亿，仅北京基投、皖投集团两家城投主体存在 7 年及以上 （优先行权）长债发行。新债认购情绪方面，虽然现券市场交投情绪转弱，但投资者参与超长城投债一级市场的配置 热度仍维持在较高点位，有本周长债供给收缩的影响，也展现市场对高资质主体长债收益的认可。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数涨势明显放缓。本周 7 年以上普信债指数总体微涨，7-10 年 AA+信用债指数涨幅 0.03%，10 年以上 AA+信用债指数涨幅也仅 0.11%，表现弱于利率长债。 超长信用债成交量显著缩减。经过连续三周的上涨，7 年以上普信债利差已被压缩到较低的位置，7-10 年产业债与 20- 30 年国债利差已收窄至 21bp。也正是顾虑长信用利差保护空间不足，本周超长普信债成交笔数 ...

截至 2025 年 11 月 17 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.5%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州区县级；其余区 域中，云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率超过半数下行，其中，3-5 年品种收益率平均 下行幅度达到 1.2BP。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 3-5 年河南区县级非永续、3-5 年贵州区县级非永 续、1 年内及 2-3 年广西区县级永续债。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.85%以下；收益率高于 3.5%的品种出 现在云南、贵州地级市及区县级、以及甘肃区县级；其余的广西、青海等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债 收益率普遍下行，3-5 年品种收益平均下行 2.6BP。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的有 1 年内福建地级市永续、2-3 年 河北地级市永续、2-3 年山西区县级非永续及 1-2 年宁夏地级市非永续债，分别对应下行 8.6BP、9.3BP、12.6BP 和 22.7BP。 产业债： 民企地产债和产业债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品 ...

11 月 17 日，零跑汽车发布 25Q3 财报，其中： 1、营收：Q3 公司共计销售新车 17.4 万辆，同/环比+101.8%/+29.6%； 总计营收 194.5 亿元，同/环比+97.3%/+36.7%；我们计算 Q3 单车 ASP 11.19 万元，同/环比-2.2%/+5.4%；25Q1-Q3 公司共计销售新车 39.6 万辆，同比+128.8%，营收 437 亿元，同比+133.6%，单车 ASP 11.05 万元，同比+2.1%； 2、费用：25Q3 销售/行政/研发费用率分别为 4.9%/3.2%/6.2%，环 比-0.7pct/+0.4pct/-1.4pct； 3、利润：25Q3 毛利率 14.5%，同/环比+6.4pct/+0.9pct；归母净利 润 1.5 亿元，同比扭亏，环比-6.3%；我们计算公司 Q3 单车净利 0.09 万元。25Q1-Q3 公司毛利率 14.3%，同比+9.4pct，实际净利润 1.8 亿 元，我们计算单车净利 0.05 万元。 我们重申，公司的核心优势是优秀的产品打造能力和较低的制造成 本，这一点依旧在延续。但需要注意的是：26 年中低端市场预计厮 杀激烈， ...

2025 年 11 月 18 日 买入（维持评级） 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 11 月 17 日，吉利汽车发布 25Q3 财报，其中： 1、营收：Q3 公司共计销售新车 76.1 万辆，同/环比+42.5%/+8.1%； 总计营收 891.9 亿元，同/环比+47.7%/+14.7%；我们计算 Q3 单车 ASP 11.7 万元，同/环比+3.7%/+6.1%；25Q1Q3 公司共计销售新车 216.9 万辆，同比+45.6%，营收 2394.8 亿元，同比+26.4%，单车 ASP 11 万元，同比-13.2%； 2、费用：经重制后公司 25Q2 销售/行政/研发费用率分别为 6.0%/1.5%/4.9%，环比-0.1pct/-0.4pct/-0.2pct； 3、利润：公司 25Q3 毛利率 16.6%，同/环比+1.0pct/-0.5pct；扣除 异常汇兑收益及非金融资产损益后，得公司 Q2 实际归母净利润 39.6 亿元，同/环比+61.3%/+20%，我们计算公司 Q3 单车净利 0.52 万元， 同/环比+13.2%/+11%；25Q1-Q3，公司毛利率 16.5%，同比+0.3pct， 实际净利 ...

上周（11/10-11/14）债券型 ETF 资金净流出 5.5 亿元，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流出 3.7 亿元、 净流入 12.1 亿元、净流出 13.9 亿元。业绩表现来看，相较于上周，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位 净值周度涨跌幅分别为-0.01%、+0.06%、+0.43%，可转债 ETF 净值持续修复。 发行进度跟踪： 上周无新发行债券 ETF。 存量产品跟踪： 截止 2025 年 11 月 14 日，利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF、可转债 ETF 流通市值分别为 1469 亿元、3769 亿元、657 亿元， 信用债 ETF 规模占比为 63.9%。相较于上周，利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF、可转债 ETF 流通市值分别增加 13.5 亿元、减 少 1.3 亿元、减少 9.8 亿元。 ETF 业绩跟踪： 上周利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF 累计单位净值分别收于 1.19、1.03。从截止 11 月 14 日的累计收益率情况来看，以 2 月 7 日作为基日，基准做市信用债 ETF 累计收益率均值上行至 0.81%；以 7 月 17 日作为基日 ...

- The report tracks the performance of enhanced index funds, highlighting the best-performing funds across different indices such as CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000. For example, the Ping An CSI 500 Enhanced Index Fund achieved an excess return of 2.03% last week, while the Taiping CSI 1000 Enhanced Index Fund recorded an excess return of 1.84%[5][38][41] - Over the past year, the best-performing enhanced index funds include the E Fund CSI 300 Enhanced Fund with a 12.83% excess return, the Penghua CSI 500 Enhanced Fund with an 18.90% excess return, and the Huaxia CSI 1000 Enhanced Fund with a 28.67% excess return[39][42] - The report also provides detailed performance metrics for various enhanced strategy ETFs, such as the China Merchants CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF, which achieved a 31.60% excess return over the past year and 22.17% since 2025[27][28][39]

Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new convertible bonds has been relatively low this year, with less than 50 bonds issued and a total scale of less than 500 billion, leading to a scarcity that has attracted market attention [12][14] - New bonds listed since July have closed above 140, indicating strong market demand, and the pricing strategy for new bonds is crucial for obtaining returns [2][12] - Two main strategies for institutions to gain returns from new bonds include buying on the second day after listing and participating in rights offerings [2][27] Market Review - The stock market has been experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index showing declines of 0.18% and 3.01% respectively, indicating a technical pressure around the 4000-point mark [34] - The consumer sector has shown strength, while technology stocks have faced significant pullbacks, influenced by CPI/PPI data and external market conditions [34][55] - The convertible bond market has seen a rise in the index, with the average transaction volume increasing, reflecting a high valuation environment [44][47] Convertible Bond Investment Strategy - The current valuation of convertible bonds is at a high level, with the average premium rate for bonds priced between 90-110 at approximately 30.06%, indicating limited upward momentum [47][55] - A neutral overall view is suggested, with a focus on trading opportunities as the premium rate approaches around 26% [55] - Specific sectors to watch include high-growth areas such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, battery storage, and military industries, as well as themes like AI computing and solid-state batteries [55] Primary Market Tracking - Recently, one new bond was issued, and several companies have received approvals for bond issuance, indicating ongoing activity in the convertible bond market [56][58]

- The report tracks the weekly performance and fund flows of broad-based ETFs, including average returns and fund inflows/outflows[1][2] - The top ten broad-based ETFs by fund inflows and outflows are listed, with specific details on fund size, weekly returns, and trading volume[3][4] - The report also covers the weekly performance and fund flows of sector-themed ETFs, Smart Beta ETFs, and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs[5][6] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the number, size, and trading statistics of equity ETFs, categorized by index and sector[9][10] - Overseas ETFs experienced a net outflow of 34.23 billion yuan over the past week, with significant outflows from large-cap value styles and specific sectors like banking[11][12][13] - The report lists the top ten individual stocks by net fund outflows, including companies like Kweichow Moutai and CATL[15][16][17]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFlytek, AI hardware companies like Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, and companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU values [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of Baidu's new model Wenxin 5.0, which features a total parameter scale of 2.4 trillion and utilizes a super-sparse mixed expert architecture for unified understanding and generation across multiple modalities [5][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.1 Instant and GPT-5.1 Thinking, which enhance model intelligence and instruction-following capabilities [5][12]. - The AI programming startup Cursor has completed a $2.3 billion D round financing, achieving a post-investment valuation of approximately $29.3 billion to $30 billion (around 200 billion RMB) [5][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the computer sector, driven by improved operational quality and the acceleration of AI application implementation [12]. Summary by Sections Computer Industry Insights - The report indicates that the AI industry chain, particularly AI computing power, is expected to maintain high prosperity, while AI applications are on an upward trajectory [11][12]. Market Review - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) decreased by 3.03%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.95 percentage points [14]. Key Events Outlook - Upcoming events include the 2025 World Intelligent Manufacturing Conference and the 2025 "Artificial Intelligence +" Industry Ecosystem Conference, which are expected to present opportunities within the relevant industry chains [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper, aluminum, and precious metals sectors, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights - Copper prices have shown a weekly increase of 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton on the LME, with domestic prices rising by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a recovery in demand as the market approaches the traditional peak season [2][14]. - Aluminum prices also increased, with LME aluminum up 0.52% to $2,877.00 per ton, supported by low inventory levels and stable demand from downstream processing industries [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 4.16% to $4,174.5 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties in the U.S., indicating strong investor interest in safe-haven assets [4][16]. - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum due to increased demand and the suspension of export control measures, leading to a bullish outlook for companies involved in rare earth production [5][32]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 86,900 yuan per ton [2][14]. - The processing fee index for imported copper concentrate dropped to -$42.21 per ton, indicating supply chain pressures [2][14]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 0.52 million tons to 20.11 million tons, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.52% to $2,877.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 21,800 yuan per ton [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3][15]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly to 62%, suggesting stable demand [3][15]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4][16]. - The market is influenced by U.S. political instability and geopolitical tensions, leading to a strong demand for gold [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 1.40%, but overall demand is expected to rise due to the suspension of export controls [5][32]. - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from increased strategic importance and price appreciation [5][32]. Other Metals - Antimony prices increased by 15.5%, driven by a suspension of export controls and a tightening supply situation [5][34]. - Tin prices rose by 3.11%, supported by reduced illegal mining activities in Indonesia [5][35]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, reflecting strong demand in the energy storage sector [5][61].