Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a potential recovery driven by recent policy changes and market dynamics [2][16]. Core Insights - Recent tax policy changes have led to a rebound in new home sales, with a notable increase in transaction volumes across major cities [2][16]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is transitioning into a phase characterized by inventory management and stabilization of housing prices, particularly in core cities [14][15]. - The overall demand for housing remains significant, especially in first and second-tier cities, despite a long-term trend of population decline [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report notes a 30.89% week-on-week increase in transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year increase of 20.18% [2][16]. - First and second-tier cities saw significant increases in transaction volumes, while third-tier cities experienced a decline [2][16]. 2. Housing Market High-Frequency Data - The report tracks a total of 25,422 new home transactions in the week of November 18-24, 2024, marking a 34.30% increase from the previous week [19]. - Cumulative transaction area for new homes in major cities has decreased by 28.35% year-on-year as of November 24, 2024 [19][26]. 3. Land Market High-Frequency Data - The land supply in 100 major cities increased by 14.23% week-on-week, while land transactions decreased by 34.87% [50]. - The average land price for transactions in major cities has decreased, indicating a cooling in land acquisition costs [59]. 4. Real Estate Development Investment Data - Cumulative real estate development investment reached 86,308.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.30% [68]. - The report indicates a significant decline in new construction and completion rates, with new starts down by 22.60% year-on-year [70].
房地产行业市场周报:税收新政如期落地,新房销售有所回暖
Caixin Securities·2024-11-27 09:45