电力行业2024年三季报综述：供需两旺，火电改善超预期

Industry Overview - The power and utilities sector experienced strong supply and demand in Q3 2024, with thermal power showing marginal recovery from August to September [2] - Electricity consumption in Q3 2024 grew by 7.7% YoY, reaching 2,752 billion kWh, while total electricity consumption for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 7.9% YoY to 7,409.4 billion kWh [2] - Power generation remained stable, with thermal power rebounding significantly in August and September after hitting a low in July [2] Power Sector Performance - The power sector's revenue grew in Q3 2024, driven by increased power generation and thermal power recovery [2] - Total revenue for the power sector in Q3 2024 was 439.4 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY, with hydropower leading at 8.4% growth [2] - Gross profit margin for the power sector in Q3 2024 was 25.2%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 54.39 billion yuan, a 2.0% YoY increase [2] Thermal Power Sector - Thermal power revenue rebounded in Q3 2024, with a 0.09% YoY increase, despite some displacement by hydropower [2] - The average price of Shanxi Youhun 5500 thermal coal in Q3 2024 was 871 yuan/ton, down 11.2% YoY, contributing to stable gross margins [2] - 13 thermal power companies reported positive revenue growth in Q3 2024, with Changyuan Power and Jiantou Energy leading the growth [2] Hydropower Sector - Hydropower revenue grew significantly in Q3 2024, with a 8.4% YoY increase, driven by improved water inflows [2] - Gross profit margin for hydropower in Q3 2024 was 59.27%, up 1.88 percentage points YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 25.58 billion yuan, a 21.0% YoY increase [2] - 5 hydropower companies reported positive revenue growth in Q3 2024, with Guiguan Power and Hunan Development leading the growth [2] Green Power Sector - Green power revenue increased by 2.8% YoY in Q3 2024, reaching 65.87 billion yuan, driven by capacity growth [7] - Gross profit margin for green power in Q3 2024 was 39.5%, up 0.2 percentage points YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 10.2 billion yuan, a 6.1% YoY increase [7] - 7 out of 12 green power companies reported positive revenue growth in Q3 2024, with Jiangsu Xinneng and Jilin Electric Power showing significant improvement [7] Investment Strategy - The power sector's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with thermal power expected to continue recovering in Q4 [7] - Long-term growth in electricity demand is expected due to new productive forces development and electrification trends, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Anhui regions [7] - Thermal power is expected to benefit from stable fuel prices and reduced hydropower displacement, while hydropower may see further gains from market-oriented reforms [7] Key Companies to Watch - Regional thermal power leaders in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Wanneng Power, Shenneng Co, Zheneng Power, and Shanghai Electric Power [7] - Nationwide power plants benefiting from power market reforms, such as Guodian Power and Huadian International [7] - Hydropower companies with stable dividend policies, such as Yangtze Power [7]