机械行业月报：关注景气度向好的顺周期机械与成长子行业龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the mechanical industry, in line with the broader market performance [2]. Core Views - The mechanical sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on cyclical machinery and leading companies in growth sub-sectors. The report suggests a defensive strategy while recommending investments in cyclical leaders and growth sectors such as robotics and semiconductor equipment [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - In November, the CITIC mechanical sector declined by 1.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points, ranking 19th among 30 CITIC primary industries [35][36]. - Key sub-sectors showing positive performance include industrial robots, aerial work vehicles, and lithium battery equipment, with increases of 20.1%, 14.2%, and 13.77% respectively [35]. 2. Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in October reached 16,791 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with domestic sales up by 21.6% [49][60]. - The report indicates a recovery in the engineering machinery market, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies as the industry approaches a cyclical rebound [69]. 3. Robotics - Industrial robot production in October was 50,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a cumulative production of 465,000 units for the year, up 13.3% [70][71]. - The report highlights a significant upward trend in the robotics sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies and core component manufacturers as the industry recovers [73]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing continued growth, with new ship prices reaching new highs and key performance indicators showing significant increases [18][20]. - The report recommends investment in shipbuilding companies as profitability improves in this sector [21]. 5. Fixed Asset Investment - The report notes that fixed asset investments in sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals are increasing, positively impacting demand for mining and construction machinery [22][23]. - Railway fixed asset investment is also on the rise, contributing to sustained demand for railway equipment [24]. 6. Industry Valuation - As of November 26, 2024, the mechanical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 29.9, positioned at the 44.6 percentile of its 10-year range, indicating a valuation below the industry average [41][46]. - Certain growth sub-sectors remain undervalued, with price-to-earnings ratios below the 20th percentile [46]. 7. Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the engineering machinery industry, suggesting that the sector is nearing a recovery phase after a prolonged downturn [69]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in engineering machinery and robotics, as well as those involved in the production of key components [73][74].