食品饮料行业2025年投资策略：行业中枢下沉，寻找相对高增的资产

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [77]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has experienced a significant slowdown in revenue growth since 2020, with 2024 showing further contraction. Only segments like liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks recorded positive growth, while others faced declines [3][4][10]. - The profitability of the food and beverage sector has generally increased due to falling upstream prices rather than improvements in product structure, indicating reliance on external factors rather than internal enhancements [4][29]. - The return on equity (ROE) for food and beverage assets has been on a long-term decline, with segments like liquor and beer showing stable or increasing returns, while others like prepared dishes and health products have seen significant drops [4][31][34]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has reached a low point, reflecting adjustments to changes in performance growth. The sector's valuation is expected to continue to decline in the long term [5][50]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Since 2020, the food and beverage sector has seen a general slowdown in revenue growth, with a 3.03 percentage point decline in average annual growth from 2016-2019 to 2020-2023. In 2024, the revenue growth further contracted to 3.92%, down 5.38 percentage points from the previous period [10][13][17]. - Only liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks have shown positive revenue growth, while other segments like prepared foods and health products have recorded significant declines [13][17]. Cost and Profitability - The sector's gross margin increased by 1.86 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 50.92%. This increase is attributed to a decline in costs rather than product upgrades [29]. - The overall profitability increase is primarily due to external price reductions rather than internal product improvements, indicating a reliance on external market conditions [4][29]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed in the secondary market, with a cumulative decline of 51.98% since the peak in 2021. Only soft drinks and snacks have recorded positive returns during this period [5][43][45]. - The sector's valuation has dropped to a historical low, with a current valuation of 20.04 times earnings, reflecting a necessary adjustment to the slowing growth [50]. 2025 Outlook and Investment Strategy - Revenue growth for food and beverage companies is expected to remain in the single digits for 2025, with a forecasted growth rate between 5% and 8%. The long-term outlook suggests further narrowing of growth rates [61][62]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in emerging markets such as prepared foods, baking, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast [67][68].