河南研究：经济数据跟踪（2024年10月）

Economic Overview - In October 2024, China's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, maintaining a recovery trend from the previous month[14] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a significant increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[21] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to October 2024 totaled 423,222 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[23] Regional Insights: Henan Province - In October 2024, Henan's industrial added value increased by 10.6% year-on-year, marking the first double-digit growth of the year[34] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 2,573.58 billion yuan, growing by 7.1% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[39] - Real estate development investment in Henan decreased by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[28] Investment and Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment in China rose by 9.3% year-on-year, driven by increased investment in consumer goods manufacturing[25] - The manufacturing sector in Henan saw significant growth, particularly in the automotive and electrical equipment industries, with growth rates of 42.4% and 24.6% respectively[34] Trade Performance - In the first ten months of 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 36.02 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 3.2%[30] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade value reaching 5.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%[30] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation affecting economic recovery, insufficient domestic demand recovery, and escalating trade tensions[7]