钢铁有色行业2025年投资策略：供给增长受限、中国需求回暖，看好铜铝投资机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industry, with a sub-sector ranking of copper/aluminum > precious metals > steel [3] Core Views - Demand remains the key variable for steel, copper, and aluminum in 2025, with supply growth constrained for all three metals [1] - China's economic recovery is expected to benefit the steel, copper, and aluminum sectors, with the extent of the recovery determining market elasticity [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to benefit from the US interest rate cut cycle and central bank gold purchases [1] Supply Analysis Steel - Steel supply growth is constrained by declining profitability and potential policy interventions similar to the 2017 supply-side reforms [1] - Energy consumption and carbon emissions will remain the main constraints on steel supply in the medium to long term [1] Copper - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by only 1.4% in 2025 due to limited capital expenditure growth from major copper producers and slower growth in scrap copper supply [1] - Copper mine production growth is constrained by declining ore grades and limited capital expenditure from major producers [119][120] Aluminum - Aluminum supply growth is capped by capacity limits and ongoing disruptions from Yunnan's hydropower supply, with domestic supply (including imports) expected to grow by only 1.4% in 2025 [1] - China's aluminum production is approaching its capacity ceiling, with a utilization rate of 97.45% as of October 2024 [146][148] Demand Analysis Steel - Steel demand in China is expected to decline by 1% in 2025, driven by weak real estate market conditions and low new construction starts [2] - The real estate sector accounts for 38% of steel demand, making it the largest downstream consumer [160] Copper - Global copper demand is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, driven by steady traditional demand and strong growth in new energy sectors [2] - New energy sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable energy, are expected to account for 18% of copper demand by 2025 [4] Aluminum - Aluminum demand in China is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, with growth in manufacturing sectors (new energy vehicles, solar power, and electricity) offsetting declines in the real estate sector [2] - The new energy vehicle and solar power sectors are key drivers of aluminum demand growth [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to increased ETF investment demand and continued central bank gold purchases, with a potential target of $2,893/oz [2] - Central bank gold purchases accounted for 23% of global gold demand in 2023, up from 11% in 2021 [70] Investment Recommendations Steel - Long-term value in the steel sector may emerge as ultra-low emission upgrades are completed and the industry is integrated into the carbon trading market [3] - Recommended stocks include Baosteel, TISCO, Maanshan Iron & Steel, and Sansteel Minguang [3] Copper - Copper prices are expected to rise with China's economic recovery, with a global refined copper shortage anticipated in 2025 [3] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, CMOC, Western Mining, and JCHX Mining [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to tight supply conditions, with Yunnan's hydropower disruptions and capacity limits constraining supply [3] - Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminium [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the US interest rate cut cycle and central bank gold purchases [3] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Shandong Gold International [3]