海外奢侈品行业点评系列之LVMH：日元走强影响收入增速，中国需求环比放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the luxury goods industry, specifically for LVMH [1]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, LVMH reported a revenue of €19 billion, with an organic revenue decrease of 3% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in revenue growth in Japan attributed to the strengthening of the yen [5][6]. - The breakdown of revenue by category in Q3 2024 shows: - Wines and Spirits: €1.386 billion, organic decline of 7% - Fashion and Leather Goods: €9.151 billion, organic decline of 5% - Perfumes and Cosmetics: €2.012 billion, organic growth of 3% - Watches and Jewelry: €2.386 billion, organic decline of 4% - Retail: €3.927 billion, organic growth of 2% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 2024 revenue by region shows: - USA: 0% year-on-year change - Japan: +20% - Asia (excluding Japan): -16% - Europe: +2% [6]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market experienced a slight decline in demand in Q3 2024, influenced by consumer confidence and discretionary spending, along with increased tariffs on certain European goods [2][6]. - LVMH is exiting unofficial channels for perfumes and cosmetics in China, with a 5% organic growth in this segment from January to September 2024, driven by strong performances from brands like Christian Dior and Fenty Beauty [3][6]. Future Outlook - LVMH remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the Chinese luxury market, viewing the current slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, anticipating a rebound in demand once consumer confidence is restored [3][7].