铜月报（202411）：10月铜矿进口环比回落，加工费持稳处于低位

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decrease in copper ore imports and an increase in scrap copper imports in October 2024. The copper ore import volume was 2.314 million tons, down 5.0% month-on-month, while scrap copper imports rose by 14.2% month-on-month to 183,000 tons [1][23] - The report indicates a decline in cathode copper production in October, with a production volume of 979,800 tons, down 2.4% month-on-month. However, cathode copper imports increased by 11.4% month-on-month to 359,000 tons [2][28] - The report notes that the apparent demand for copper in October was 1.329 million tons, reflecting a 1.4% increase month-on-month, driven by strong demand in the home appliance and new energy vehicle sectors [3][47] - The macroeconomic analysis suggests that the U.S. CPI is stabilizing, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support copper prices in the medium to long term [3][57] Summary by Sections Raw Material Side - In October, copper ore imports decreased by 5.0% to 2.314 million tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.2% to 183,000 tons. The cumulative copper ore import volume from January to October 2024 was 23.39 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year [1][23][21] Supply Side - Cathode copper production in October was 979,800 tons, down 2.4% month-on-month, with a cumulative production of 9.844 million tons from January to October 2024, up 3.3% year-on-year. Cathode copper imports rose to 359,000 tons in October, marking an 11.4% increase month-on-month [2][28][32] Processing Side - Copper processing output in October was 1.967 million tons, down 2.3% month-on-month. The cumulative copper processing output from January to October 2024 was 18.274 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. Copper material exports in October were 80,100 tons, up 15.4% year-on-year [3][39][41] Terminal Demand - The apparent demand for copper in October was 1.329 million tons, with significant increases in air conditioner and new energy vehicle production, which rose by 14% and 44.5% year-on-year, respectively [3][47] Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI for October was recorded at 2.6%, slightly higher than the previous month, indicating a stable inflation environment. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support copper prices in the long term [3][57] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper remains tight, providing strong support for copper prices. It recommends focusing on leading companies such as Zijin Mining and others in the sector [4][65]