养殖链2025年度投资策略：海外为鉴：看好龙头规模成长，拥抱高ROE价值股

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the livestock chain industry [5][6][199]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of embracing high ROE value stocks, highlighting that leading companies in the industry are expected to continue increasing their market share and grow into industry giants [4][6][199]. - The analysis of the U.S. livestock industry reveals that successful companies have transitioned from cost competition in upstream production to profitability competition in downstream channels [2][3][4]. - The domestic livestock market is projected to maintain low volatility in production capacity, with supply-demand dynamics remaining stable for pigs and poultry [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections U.S. Livestock Industry Review - The U.S. livestock industry has undergone significant consolidation, with large-scale producers dominating the market [2][3]. - The report outlines the evolution of the U.S. pig industry, noting that by 2000, the industry had largely completed its scale-up, with over 94% of production coming from farms with 500 or more pigs [2][3][26]. - The profitability of the U.S. pork industry has shifted from the production stage to the processing and retail stages, with retail prices significantly higher than farm prices [40][41]. Domestic Livestock Market Outlook - The domestic pig market is experiencing a slow recovery in breeding capacity, with the overall expansion willingness remaining low [3][125]. - The yellow chicken market is expected to see stable supply, while the white chicken market is facing tight supply conditions in the short term [3][4][145]. - The report indicates that leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs maintain a significant ROE advantage over their peers, with growth potential remaining strong [4][163][201]. Key Company Analysis - Muyuan Foods is highlighted as a cost-efficient leader in pig farming, with a projected output of 66-72 million pigs in 2024, maintaining a strong market position [201]. - Wens Foodstuffs is recognized for its robust growth in pig production, aiming for 30-33 million pigs in 2024, supported by improved production metrics [201]. - Leading companies in the poultry sector, such as Lihua Foods and Yisheng, are noted for their strong market positions and profitability, with Yisheng being the largest white-feathered chicken seedling company in China [217][218]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends long-term attention to high ROE value stocks in the livestock sector, with core recommendations including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Lihua Foods, Yisheng, Shengnong Development, Haida Group, and Shuanghui Development [4][5][199].