中国盈利系列七：盈利继续放缓，关注稳增长政策

Economic Overview - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[1] - In October, the profit margin for state-owned enterprises fell by 8.2%, while private enterprises saw a slight increase of 0.14%[3] Profit Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced a profit decline of 4.2% year-on-year, with its profit share decreasing to 71.59%, a drop of 0.29 percentage points compared to the previous year[3] - The mining industry reported a profit drop of 12.7% year-on-year, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production sector saw an increase of 11.5%[17] Policy Implications - The implementation of a series of macroeconomic policies in October aimed to stabilize growth, with fiscal spending reaching 77.6% and 99.0% for the first and second accounts, respectively[3] - The issuance of CNY 500 billion in special bonds for investment by central authorities indicates a shift in focus from local to central government support for growth[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 12.9%, significantly above the average industrial level, contributing 1.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[24] - In the equipment manufacturing sector, profits turned positive with a growth of 4.5% in October, marking a significant recovery from previous declines[22] Risk Factors - The ongoing pressure on upstream prices and the potential for short-term economic fluctuations pose risks to profit recovery in the manufacturing sector[3] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, necessitating continued monitoring of profit distribution and structural changes within industries[3]