宏观点评：特朗普关税“首枪”对准中加墨，影响几何？

Group 1: Tariff Implications - Trump's proposed tariffs of 25% on products from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, are expected to reduce China's exports by approximately 2.0 percentage points (1.5% from China and 0.5% from Canada and Mexico) [2] - The 10% tariff on Chinese goods could lead to a 14% decline in exports to Mexico, based on a tariff elasticity of -1.4, indicating a significant impact on trade dynamics [4] - The tariffs are likely to increase pressure on China's GDP and the RMB exchange rate, further complicating economic conditions [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Effects - Industries heavily reliant on exports to Mexico, such as computers, home appliances, electronics, textiles, and petrochemicals, may face substantial declines due to the 10% tariff [4] - Sectors that previously benefited from exporting through Mexico, including automotive, electrical equipment, and machinery, could see restrictions due to the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico [4] - Companies with significant investments in Mexico, particularly in automotive parts and home appliances, may experience direct adverse effects from these tariffs [4] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The tariffs appear to be a strategic move to gain leverage in the upcoming 2026 renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [2] - Trump's administration may be aiming to limit Chinese exports by making it more difficult for Chinese goods to enter the US market through Mexico and Canada [2] - The announcement of tariffs on the first day of Trump's presidency suggests a more aggressive approach compared to previous terms, indicating potential for further increases in tariffs [3]