中国2025年展望-逆风而上

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a baseline scenario for China's 2025 economic outlook, with a real GDP growth forecast of 4.5%, down from 4.9% in 2024 [8][9] Core Views - Chinese policymakers are expected to lean against the wind to stabilize domestic consumption and the property market while managing renewed US-China trade tensions in 2025 [6] - The US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is assumed to increase by 20pp, leading to a 0.7pp drag on China's real GDP in 2025 [7][9] - Policymakers are expected to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 to counteract growth headwinds [9] Economic Growth and Drivers - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with a shift in growth drivers from exports to policy support [8][9] - Exports, which contributed 70% of GDP growth in 2024, are expected to decelerate sharply in 2025 due to higher US tariffs, with total goods export volume remaining flat [8][50] - Consumption, especially goods consumption, is expected to outperform, while property investment declines continue [9] Inflation and Deflation - CPI and PPI inflation are projected to be 0.8% and 0%, respectively, in 2025, below consensus expectations [17] - Structural factors, including industrial overcapacity and weak consumer confidence, are expected to weigh on inflation [17] Property Market - The property sector is expected to remain a significant drag on growth, with a projected 2.0pp negative contribution to GDP in 2025 [41] - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60%, respectively, from their 2020-21 peaks [36] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a key role in 2025, with the augmented fiscal deficit widening by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% [76] - The PBOC is expected to cut policy rates by 40bp in 2025, with two 20bp cuts in Q2 and Q4 [86][100] Trade and Tariffs - Chinese exports to the US are expected to decline significantly in 2025, while exports to other countries may increase modestly [51] - The current account surplus is expected to decline to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55] Labor Market and Consumption - The labor market remains weak, with youth unemployment reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [30] - Household consumption growth is expected to stay flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by subsidy programs and potential wealth effects from the stock market [24][25] Long-Term Growth Outlook - China's real GDP growth is expected to average 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the 9.0% average during 2000-2019 [4][14] - The leadership's focus on technology-driven and high-quality growth is expected to continue, with "technology" and "high-quality" becoming more frequently mentioned in policy speeches [13]