恒瑞医药：创新药迈入收获期，国际化加速前行

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hengrui Medicine with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 61 [1][2] Core Views - Hengrui Medicine's innovative drug revenue has become a strong engine for its performance growth, with a 22% YoY increase in 2023 and a 33% YoY increase in 1H24 [2] - The company's ADC pipeline is one of the most abundant in China, with 12 differentiated ADC molecules in clinical stages, and the first ADC product, SHR-A1811, is expected to be approved in 2025 [2] - Hengrui Medicine is accelerating its internationalization efforts, with increasing out-licensing deals and partnerships with global pharmaceutical companies such as Merck KGaA and GSK [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 27.2 billion, RMB 29.7 billion, and RMB 33.4 billion in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with net profits of RMB 6.0 billion, RMB 6.5 billion, and RMB 7.7 billion [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, Hengrui Medicine's revenue was RMB 22.8 billion, a 7.3% YoY increase, with net profit of RMB 4.3 billion, a 10.1% YoY increase [6] - For 2024E, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 27.2 billion, a 19.1% YoY increase, and net profit of RMB 6.0 billion, a 40.2% YoY increase [6] - The company's innovative drug revenue accounted for 46% of total revenue in 1H24, up from 38% in 2022 [2][19] Pipeline and R&D - Hengrui Medicine has 17 innovative drugs approved in China, covering oncology, hematology, anesthesia, and chronic diseases [22] - The company's ADC pipeline includes 12 differentiated molecules, with 4 in Phase 3 clinical trials, and the first ADC product, SHR-A1811, is expected to be approved in 2025 [2] - Key late-stage assets include SHR-A1811 (HER2 ADC), SHR-A1921 (TROP2 ADC), SHR-A1904 (Claudin 18.2 ADC), and SHR-1701 (PD-L1/TGF-β bispecific antibody) [37] Internationalization - Hengrui Medicine has accelerated its out-licensing efforts since 2023, with deals including HRS-1167 and SHR-A1904 to Merck KGaA and TSLP to OneBio, which was later acquired by GSK [2] - The company is exploring new models for internationalization, such as forming NewCos for GLP-1 drugs with Hercules, allowing it to retain influence and benefit from potential valuation gains [2] - The appointment of Jens Bitsche-Norhave, with over 20 years of BD experience in multinational pharmaceutical companies, is expected to further accelerate the company's internationalization efforts [2]