Shanghai Securities·2024-11-28 03:33Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a strong competitive position in the heavy-duty truck engine market, with a diversified product layout that includes engines, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, and smart logistics [3][4]. - The company's revenue and net profit have returned to a growth trajectory, with significant increases in 2023 and continued high growth in 2024 [3][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-value large-bore engines and the recovery of the heavy-duty truck market [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply engaged in the engine sector for over 20 years, with a diversified layout that includes power systems, commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, and smart logistics [3][19]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2139.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.15%, and a net profit of 90.14 billion yuan, up 83.77% year-on-year [27][30]. 2. Market Dynamics - The heavy-duty truck industry is cyclical, with macroeconomic factors significantly impacting demand [48]. - The company is expected to benefit from both new demand driven by logistics and construction, as well as replacement demand as older trucks reach the end of their service life [48][59]. 3. Product and Business Development - The company has established a "golden power chain" with its engine, transmission, and axle products, achieving over 40% market share in heavy-duty truck engines and over 60% in natural gas engines [4][6]. - The large-bore engine market presents a significant opportunity, with a global market capacity of up to 20 billion USD annually [5][6]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 107.46 billion yuan, 122.51 billion yuan, and 137.49 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.21%, 14.01%, and 12.22% respectively [6][9]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in the heavy-duty truck sector and recommends an "Accumulate" rating based on its growth potential and market positioning [6].