Investment Rating - The report rates the leisure services industry as "Positive" as of November 26, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The consumption growth rate is recovering, driven significantly by policy effects, with a notable increase in online sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, which reached a total of 1,441.8 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year [1][9]. - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a total of 45,396 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [1][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the tourism sector, with passenger turnover in October reaching 1,303.52 billion person-kilometers, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, recovering to 95% of the 2019 level [1][36]. Monthly Consumption Macro Summary - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [9][16]. - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 40,944 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% year-on-year [9][16]. - The report notes that the "Two New" policies are gradually showing their impact, particularly in categories like home appliances and 3C products, which have seen significant sales increases due to subsidies [9][10]. Industry Insights Retail Sales - The retail sales of goods in October were 40,444.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, driven by the "Double Eleven" promotions and the "Two New" subsidy policies [16][26]. - Online retail sales in October reached 1.26 trillion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month, with an online penetration rate of 27.8% [19][20]. Travel and Tourism - The report indicates a strong recovery in travel demand, with rail and air travel showing significant growth, while road and water transport are lagging behind [36][37]. - The recovery rates for different modes of transport in October were 57% for road, 106% for rail, 113% for air, and 67% for water transport compared to 2019 levels [36][37]. Duty-Free Shopping - In October, duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a total of 2.144 billion yuan, although this was a decrease of 35.4% year-on-year, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards city-based duty-free stores [46][47]. - The average spending per person in duty-free shopping was 5,533.28 yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, influenced by the changing consumer demographics and the establishment of new city-based duty-free stores [46][48].
休闲服务行业周报:政策红利深度释放,消费市场迎来回暖黄金期
Minmetals Securities·2024-11-28 03:34