石油化工行业周报：俄乌冲突升级，国际油价偏强运行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [6]. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude oil futures settling at approximately $75.17 per barrel, reflecting a weekly increase of about 5.81% [18]. - The EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow, reaching 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, which supports the upstream oil and gas companies [27]. - The North American active rig count has decreased week-on-week, but the global drilling platform count has increased, benefiting oil service companies [28]. - The refining sector shows potential for performance recovery, with Singapore diesel and gasoline price spreads increasing, while ethylene and PX spreads have decreased [33]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 1.66% during the week of November 18-22, 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about 1.91% [14]. - Leading stocks in the sector included Bohai Chemical and Water Development Gas, while stocks like Dongfang Shenghong and Hongtian Co. saw significant declines [17]. Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - International oil prices have increased, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 5.81% and 6.30% respectively [18]. - The EIA's short-term outlook indicates that despite growth in U.S. oil production, international oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, benefiting upstream companies [27]. Oil Service Sector - The North American active rig count has decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 39 rigs, while global drilling platforms have increased, indicating a positive outlook for oil service companies [28]. Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have shown slight fluctuations, with significant increases in Singapore diesel and gasoline price spreads, indicating potential recovery for refining companies [33]. Polyester End-Use Sector - The POY price spread has decreased, and overall inventory levels have accumulated, suggesting a potential recovery space for long filament enterprises [39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: focusing on energy state-owned enterprises, oil service companies, long filament industry players, and refining companies with new capacity plans [52].