股牛三段论，未来向何方？

Market Trends - Bull markets typically progress through three stages: rapid rise, game-playing, and either continuation or weakening[3] - The game-playing stage is characterized by rationalizing market sentiment and waiting for incremental information[3] - The third stage's direction (bullish or bearish) is influenced by policy support and fundamental expectations[3] Indicators and Metrics - Price-volume relationships and "scissor difference" (the cumulative return difference between top and bottom 10% stocks) help predict turning points[3] - Historical data shows that when prices fall to the "halfway point" of the rapid rise, the game-playing stage nears its end[38] - When the 5-day moving average of trading volume drops below one-third of the "halfway point," the market may have a foundation for a bull run[45] Policy and Fundamentals - Policy support combined with fundamental improvement can lead to a strong market rebound[3] - Without policy support but with fundamental improvement, the market may experience a "slow bull" trend[3] - If policy support exists but fundamentals remain weak, the market may see a short-term bull run or continue to weaken[3] Current Market Analysis - The current market is still in the game-playing stage, with relatively high price-volume indicators and "scissor difference" positions[91] - Policy and fundamental signals are not yet clear, and the market is awaiting further developments[93] - The game-playing stage may be prolonged, with the market likely to remain volatile in the short term[98] Future Market Scenarios - If price-volume indicators and "scissor difference" reach historical levels without policy or fundamental support, a short-term rebound may occur[100] - If policy support is added but fundamental recovery remains unverified, market valuations may rise first, with potential for a bull market if fundamentals improve later[100] - If fundamental recovery signals continue before incremental policies are introduced, and price-volume indicators reach historical levels, a slow bull market may emerge[103]