华住：开店继续加速，Q4RevPAR望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][16]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 earnings with revenue of 6.44 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was 2.13 billion CNY, down 2.7%, with an EBITDA margin of 33.0%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points. Adjusted net profit was 1.37 billion CNY, down 10.8%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 21.3%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points [1]. - Domestic RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for Q3 2024 was 256 CNY, down 8.1% year-on-year, while overseas RevPAR was 82 EUR, up 3.7% year-on-year. The report indicates that domestic revenue growth is slowing due to significant pressure on room rates [1]. - The company opened 790 new hotels in Q3, maintaining a high opening rate, and is on track to meet its annual target of 2,200 new openings [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 6.44 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 2.4%. Adjusted net profit was 1.37 billion CNY, down 10.8% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.0% [1][4]. - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue growth of 1% to 5%, with RevPAR pressure expected to ease due to a high base effect and slowing industry supply growth [1]. Operational Metrics - Domestic RevPAR decreased by 8.1% to 256 CNY, with occupancy down 1.0 percentage points and ADR (Average Daily Rate) down 7.0%. In contrast, overseas RevPAR increased by 3.7% to 82 EUR [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in costs, particularly in labor, due to network expansion, with hotel operating costs at 59.0%, up 1.5 percentage points [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2024 to 2026 at 3.92 billion CNY, 4.47 billion CNY, and 5.06 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.2, 17.7, and 15.6 [1][4]. - The company is focused on high-quality development and expanding its mid-to-high-end market presence while maintaining a strong growth trajectory in new hotel openings [1].