铝月报（202411）：矿端复产仍有阻力，铝价中长期乐观预期不改

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for aluminum prices despite ongoing supply constraints at the mining end [4][71] - The supply of bauxite remains tight, with CIF prices for imported bauxite from Guinea rising to $95 per dry ton, leading to continued increases in alumina spot prices [4][71] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum shows resilience, with recent increases in exports of primary aluminum, aluminum materials, and aluminum products [4][71] Summary by Sections 1. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply: In October 2024, China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.725 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [21][28] - Import and Export: The net import of electrolytic aluminum in October was 159,000 tons, a decrease of 26.5% year-on-year, while the import volume was 175,000 tons [23][28] - Profit: The weighted average cost of electrolytic aluminum in October was 18,540 yuan per ton, with a profit margin of 2,200 yuan per ton [28] 2. Recycled Aluminum - Import and Export: In October, the import of scrap aluminum was 133,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% but a month-on-month increase of 0.8% [30][33] - Profit: The price difference between refined aluminum and scrap aluminum increased significantly, with an average of 2,653.3 yuan per ton in October, up 19.2% year-on-year [36] 3. Aluminum Materials - Supply: In October 2024, aluminum material production was 5.916 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [41] - Import and Export: The export volume of aluminum materials in October was 580,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [44] 4. Alumina - Supply: In October 2024, alumina production was 7.287 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [52] - Import and Export: The net import of alumina was -164,000 tons in October, indicating a net export situation [54] - Profit: The average market price of alumina in October was 4,598.5 yuan per ton, with an average profit of 1,649.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a significant improvement [59] 5. Demand - The apparent consumption of electrolytic aluminum in October was 3.884 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% [63] - The construction sector showed a decline in new housing starts and completions, while infrastructure investment increased by 9.35% year-on-year [63]