企业利润回升看需求,需求修复在就业
China Post Securities·2024-11-28 06:23

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size showed a year-on-year decline of -10% in October, narrowing from previous months[17] - From January to October, the cumulative profit growth rate was -4.3%, indicating an expanded decline compared to previous values[17] - The mining and manufacturing sectors experienced profit declines of -12.7% and -4.2% respectively, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production sector maintained positive growth at 11.5%[17] Group 2: Consumption and Employment Dynamics - Downstream consumption profit share decreased to 16.12%, reflecting that consumption recovery has not yet transmitted to the production side[27] - Industrial enterprise profit growth is lagging behind resident income growth, indicating that sustained recovery in consumption is constrained[24] - Structural unemployment issues need to be addressed to prevent them from evolving into cyclical unemployment, which would further impact consumer spending[4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Current consumption-boosting policies primarily utilize subsidies, which have short-term effectiveness but uncertain long-term sustainability[34] - Increasing government investment, particularly in underdeveloped western and northeastern regions, is recommended to stimulate demand and create job opportunities[34] - Monitoring the transmission of demand recovery to production is crucial for enhancing economic growth momentum[34]