东海证券：晨会纪要-20241128

Key Recommendations - The petrochemical cycle has reached its bottom, making it an opportune time for left-side positioning in the oil and petrochemical industry [7][9] - Tax rebate adjustments have stimulated shipments, stabilizing the prices of complete wind power units in the new energy power sector [11][12] - Initial policy effects have led to a slight improvement in industrial enterprise profits for October 2024 [20][21] Petrochemical Industry Insights - Historical analysis indicates that the petrochemical cycle typically lasts about 7 years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the cycle's logic [7] - China's new ethylene capacity is expected to hold a global cost advantage, with average cash costs projected at approximately $688 per ton by 2027 under a Brent oil price scenario of $65 per barrel [8] - The current petrochemical cycle is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for a recovery phase beginning in the second half of next year as global demand improves [9] New Energy Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 4.68% during the week of November 18-22, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [12] - The wind power sector experienced a 2.18% decline but outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.42 percentage points [12] - The adjustment of tax rebates is expected to enhance shipment rates, with upstream silicon wafer production showing signs of improvement [13] Industrial Profit Data - In October 2024, industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year decline but improved from -27.1% to -10.0%, aided by a low base and improved profit margins [20][21] - The profit margin for October rose to 5.4%, with industrial added value increasing by 5.3% year-on-year [21][22] - The equipment manufacturing sector continues to show a high profit share, indicating a stable performance in the midstream segment [22]