金属及金属新材料行业2025年投资策略：库存周期续航，黄金续创新高

Industry Rating - The industry rating is Buy [1][2] Core Views - Base Metals: Expect domestic and overseas demand resonance. Copper supply remains tight, and with domestic policies like trade-in programs and overseas interest rate cuts, global restocking momentum persists. Aluminum demand is expected to improve globally, with prices having room to rise [4] - Steel: Supply-demand balance is expected to recover, and costs are expected to decline, leading to a stabilization of steel prices and profits in 2025 [4] - Precious Metals: Gold prices are expected to continue hitting new highs due to the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and its anti-inflation properties [4] - New Energy Metals: Lithium prices are expected to rise as supply-demand imbalances improve, driven by performance upgrades, domestic trade-in subsidies, and rapid development in energy storage [4] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earths are expected to remain in tight supply-demand balance, with tungsten and molybdenum prices expected to rise [4] Base Metals - Copper: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and with domestic trade-in policies and overseas rate cuts, global restocking momentum is expected to continue. Copper prices are expected to rise with improvements in the macro environment [4][55] - Aluminum: Global aluminum demand is expected to improve, with prices having room to rise. Profits from alumina are expected to shift to electrolytic aluminum [4][81] Steel - Supply: Crude steel production is expected to slightly decrease in 2025 due to low profitability driving active production cuts [108][109] - Demand: Steel demand in 2024 was resilient, with strong demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. In 2025, demand is expected to improve further with macro policy support [113][116] - Costs: Steel costs are expected to decline in 2025, with iron ore prices expected to remain weak due to weak global demand [133] Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and its anti-inflation properties. Global geopolitical tensions and "de-globalization" trends will further support gold prices [4][30] New Energy Metals - Lithium: Lithium prices are expected to rise as supply-demand imbalances improve, driven by performance upgrades, domestic trade-in subsidies, and rapid development in energy storage [4][42] Other Minor Metals - Rare Earths: Rare earths are expected to remain in tight supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain high [4][46] - Tungsten and Molybdenum: Tungsten prices are expected to remain strong, while molybdenum prices are expected to rise with downstream steel demand recovery [4][49][50] Investment Recommendations - Base Metals: Focus on companies like China Hongqiao (H), Chalco (A, H), and Tianshan Aluminum [4] - Steel: Focus on companies like Baosteel, Hunan Valin Steel, and CITIC Special Steel [4] - Precious Metals: Focus on companies like Yulong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zhaojin Mining (H) [4] - New Energy Metals: Focus on companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium [4] - Other Minor Metals: Focus on companies like Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Xiamen Tungsten [4]