传媒行业年度策略：关注“复苏周期、出海、高股息”三大维度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [205]. Core Insights - The media sector is currently experiencing significant volatility, with overall performance under pressure due to external economic and consumption environment changes, as well as internal factors such as content product cycles and tax policy changes. The outlook for 2025 suggests a focus on "content product and cultural consumption recovery," "cultural industry going global," and "high dividend defensiveness" as key investment dimensions [5][195]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 22, 2024, the CITIC Media Index has increased by 4.56% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 12.67% [34][41]. - The media sector's performance has shown significant elasticity, with a maximum increase of 47.99% in early 2024, followed by a maximum decline of 32.27% from March to September [37][41]. - The media sector ranks 17th among 31 CITIC primary industries, indicating a mid-tier position [34]. Dimension One: Cultural Content and Consumption Recovery - Policies are encouraging cultural consumption, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in domestic service retail sales as of October 2024 [56]. - The gaming market is showing signs of recovery, with a 5.59% year-on-year increase in actual sales revenue for the first ten months of 2024, reaching 268.12 billion yuan [62]. - The film market has faced significant demand challenges, with total box office revenue down 22.13% year-on-year as of October 2024 [75]. Dimension Two: Cultural Products Going Global - The cultural industry is encouraged to expand internationally, with the gaming sector leading the way, achieving over 163.66 billion yuan in overseas sales in 2023, marking an increase of nearly 800% since 2013 [126]. - The short drama market is rapidly growing, with over 40 applications entering overseas markets and achieving significant download and revenue growth [139]. Dimension Three: High Dividend Attributes of the Publishing Sector - The publishing sector is characterized by high dividends, with average dividend yields around 6% for several major companies [180]. - Recent regulatory changes emphasize the importance of increasing cash dividends, with over 95% of listed companies reporting record-high cash dividends in 2024 [176]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cultural content and those benefiting from the recovery in cultural consumption, as well as those with robust dividend yields in the publishing sector [195][200].