房地产行业专题研究：存量房“收储”政策的约束与再思考

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [1][3]. Core Views - Since the central government first proposed the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing on May 17, 2024, policies have been continuously upgraded, with at least 32 cities issuing acquisition details and at least 14 cities having projects implemented, although the actual progress remains limited [6][10]. - The slow progress in the acquisition of existing housing is attributed to local governments' need to "reconfigure" and "reprice" housing inventory, leading to discrepancies between actual outcomes and market expectations for inventory reduction [6][24]. - Several constraints need clarification in the process of acquiring existing housing, including price matching mechanisms, housing source matching mechanisms, responsibility matching mechanisms, and market segmentation mechanisms [6][26][30]. Summary by Sections Policy Review - The report reviews the real estate "acquisition" policy since the May 17 meeting, summarizing the constraints and considerations for future policy implementation [10][11]. Current Progress - As of September, the acquisition policy has been continuously upgraded, with the central bank increasing the support ratio for affordable housing re-loans from 60% to 100% [11][12]. - The framework for acquiring existing housing has been clarified, with specific requirements for housing quality, location, and pricing [13][14]. Financial Support - By the end of Q3 2024, approximately 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan affordable housing loan quota had been utilized, indicating a usage rate of about 5% [18][19]. Market Expectations vs. Policy Implementation - There is a significant gap between market expectations and the actual implementation of the acquisition policy, with the market expecting a reduction in inventory and stabilization of prices, while the actual outcomes may be overestimated due to reconfiguration and repricing [24][26]. Future Directions - The report suggests that future policies may focus on rental-first strategies, prioritizing high-capacity cities, and increasing the acquisition of diverse property types [40][41][42]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of financial policy support and encouraging banks to take on more active roles in the acquisition process [47][48][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to invest in, including City Investment Holdings, Urban Construction Development, Binjiang Group, and China Overseas Development, among others, with a focus on those with strong resources and stable operations in core cities [53][54].