全球经济金融展望报告2025年年报（总第61期）

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2025, with GDP growth projected at 2.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024[18] - Global inflation is expected to ease, with CPI growth projected at 3.2% in 2025, down 1.1 percentage points from 2024[25] - Protectionism is identified as the biggest risk to global trade growth, with potential tariffs and trade barriers impacting global markets[6] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts face uncertainty, with potential for slower rate reductions in 2025 due to reflation risks[39] - The European Central Bank is expected to continue rate cuts, with deposit rates potentially falling to 2.0% in 2025[40] - The Bank of Japan may gradually raise rates to 0.75%-1.0% in 2025, depending on economic conditions[40] Trade and Investment - Global trade growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 3.0% in 2024, due to rising protectionism[31] - Global FDI inflows are expected to remain low, with investment growth projected at 26.4% of GDP in 2025, only a 0.2 percentage point increase from 2024[15] Regional Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at 2.3% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from 2024, due to potential tariff impacts and slower private consumption[57] - The Eurozone is expected to see GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, up 0.5 percentage points from 2024, driven by private consumption and investment recovery[72] - Germany's GDP growth is projected at 0.9% in 2025, up 0.9 percentage points from 2024, but structural challenges remain[75]