轻工制造行业年度策略：政策提振信心，景气触底回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the light industry manufacturing sector [2][9]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in sentiment due to policy support, with signs of improvement in market conditions [2][7]. - The sector's performance has lagged behind major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, with a year-to-date increase of only 0.31% as of November 27, 2024, compared to increases of 11.26% and 13.87% for the aforementioned indices [4][47]. - The industry is witnessing a valuation recovery, particularly in the home furnishing and other light industry segments, which are still at historically low valuation levels [4][57]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached CNY 454.60 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.14%, a significant improvement from the previous year's decline of 1.39% [5][73]. - However, Q3 2024 saw a slight revenue decline of 1.00% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 30.32% compared to the same quarter in the previous year [5][75]. 2. Paper Industry - The paper sector is expected to see a price recovery due to improving supply-demand dynamics, with waste paper prices beginning to rebound from a low point in Q4 2024 [6][94]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies with integrated pulp and paper operations, as well as those in the specialty paper sector [9][25]. 3. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is benefiting from government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and demand for home products [7][26]. - The sector's valuation remains low, with potential for upward correction, particularly for leading companies that can leverage external demand [9][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the paper and home furnishing sectors, including Sun Paper, Xianhe Shares, and Oppein Home [9][34].