全球银行业展望报告2025年年报（总第61期）

Global Banking Industry Overview - The global banking industry faces increased uncertainty in 2025 due to monetary policy shifts and political changes, leading to challenges in profit growth and continued divergence in scale expansion [1] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia-Pacific, remain key drivers of global economic growth, offering opportunities for banking business expansion [6] - Developed economies, such as the US and Europe, experience slowing growth, with weak consumer demand and housing market challenges impacting banking operations [5] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Major developed economies, including the US, Eurozone, and UK, have entered a rate-cutting cycle, putting pressure on net interest margins and profitability [8] - Emerging economies show divergent monetary policies, with some countries raising rates while others cut rates, adding complexity to global banking operations [9] - The US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 75 basis points, while the European Central Bank reduces rates by 110 basis points, impacting bank asset yields and interest income [8] Regulatory Environment - Financial regulations continue to tighten globally, with a focus on capital requirements, digital technology, and sustainability [11] - The US and UK implement Basel III reforms, increasing capital requirements for large banks and enhancing risk management capabilities [11] - Digital asset and cryptocurrency regulations are strengthened, with global frameworks being developed to manage risks in financial technology [13] Profitability and Asset Quality - US banking profits are expected to decline by 19.2% in 2025 due to monetary policy shifts and political uncertainties [24] - Eurozone and UK banking profits are projected to grow by around 10%, driven by international expansion and low interest rates [24] - Emerging markets like Brazil and India show strong profit growth, with Brazil's banking profits expected to increase by 24.9% [24] Asset Expansion and Risk Management - US banking assets are expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, while Eurozone assets rebound by 5.4% after a period of contraction [31] - Japan's banking assets grow by 5.0%, focusing on Asia-Pacific markets, while Brazil's assets expand by 11.9% [31] - Global banking risks remain high, with US non-performing loans expected to rise to 1.13%, while Eurozone non-performing loans decline to 1.95% [35] Capital Adequacy - US banking capital adequacy ratios are expected to increase by 1.12 percentage points to 16.08% in 2025, while Eurozone ratios remain stable at 19.00% [44] - UK banking capital adequacy ratios rise significantly by 4.53 percentage points to 22.80%, reflecting strong regulatory reforms [44] - Emerging markets like Malaysia and Indonesia maintain high capital adequacy ratios, with Indonesia at 26.80% [44] China Banking Industry Overview - China's banking industry continues to support the real economy, with stable asset growth and improved risk management [47] - Total assets of China's banking sector reach 439.5 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.3% year-on-year [68] - Policy measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, support credit expansion and economic recovery [51] Profitability and Policy Support in China - China's banking profits grow by 0.5% in 2024, with net interest margins stabilizing at 1.53% [77] - Non-interest income grows by 4%, driven by bond investment gains, while fee income declines due to regulatory fee reductions [77] - Policy support, including capital replenishment and debt resolution, is expected to boost banking profitability in 2025 [70] Regulatory and Policy Developments in China - China's financial regulators focus on risk prevention, capital management, and green finance, with new policies supporting technology innovation and small business financing [57] - The "Five Financial Articles" policy framework guides banking services, emphasizing support for key sectors like technology, green development, and manufacturing [57] - Open banking and digital payment reforms enhance financial inclusion and service efficiency, with new regulations promoting data sharing and innovation [57]