区域经济金融展望报告（长三角）2024年第4期（总第4期）

Core Insights - The overall economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is expected to remain stable in 2024, with GDP growth surpassing the national average, driven by rapid growth in the industrial and service sectors [3][7][9] - For 2025, the YRD is projected to maintain a GDP growth rate of around 5.5%, supported by robust service sector development, infrastructure investment, and a rebound in consumer activity [3][8][171] Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the YRD's GDP reached approximately 23.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.4% of the national GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, exceeding the national growth rate of 4.8% by 0.6 percentage points [9][10] - The YRD's industrial output grew by 7.2%, outperforming the national average of 5.8%, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing particularly strong growth [17][18] Sector Performance - The service sector in the YRD accounted for 57.7% of the regional GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, higher than the national average of 4.7% [22] - Consumer retail sales in the YRD totaled 9.1 trillion yuan, representing 25.7% of the national total, but the growth rate of 3.1% lagged slightly behind the national average of 3.3% [27][30] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the YRD showed divergence, with Shanghai and Anhui experiencing growth rates of 6.7% and 4.2%, respectively, while Zhejiang and Jiangsu lagged at 3.3% and 2.4% [35] - Manufacturing investment in the YRD grew significantly, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui showing increases of 10.9%, 9.6%, and 14.9%, respectively, all above the national average of 9.2% [39] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in the YRD decreased by 5.9%, but this decline was less severe than the national average of 10.1%, indicating a relatively better performance in the region [61] - The sales area of commercial housing in the YRD fell by 14.9%, but the decline was less than the national average of 17.1%, with a notable month-on-month increase of 68.5% in September [67] Financial Sector - The YRD's banking sector showed resilience, with total assets reaching 47.8 trillion yuan, growing at a rate of 8.7%, which is higher than the overall growth rate of listed banks [206] - Non-performing loan ratios in the YRD remained lower than the national average, with Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang reporting rates of 1.01%, 0.74%, and 0.70%, respectively [161][217] Integration and Innovation - The YRD has made significant strides in regional integration, with the establishment of the Yangtze River Delta Ecological Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone, which has seen 136 institutional innovations [166] - The digital economy in the YRD has also flourished, with the digital economy's added value exceeding 12 trillion yuan, accounting for over 40% of the regional GDP [169] Policy Recommendations - To sustain economic growth, the YRD should focus on implementing a series of incremental policies, enhancing infrastructure, and fostering innovation in technology and green development [173][175] - Strengthening financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises and optimizing the financial service ecosystem will be crucial for the region's economic resilience [250][251]