环保行业专题研究：化债政策加码，环保板块修复弹性强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection sector [1] Core Insights - The introduction of a new debt reduction policy, amounting to 12 trillion yuan, is expected to alleviate local government debt risks significantly. The total hidden debt that local governments need to manage will decrease from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [2][31] - The environmental protection industry heavily relies on government spending, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects, which accounted for approximately 38.9% of the industry's total revenue in 2022 [2][44] - The report highlights that the environmental sector is facing severe accounts receivable issues, with the ratio of accounts receivable to total revenue at 60.1%, the highest among all industries [2][46] Summary by Sections Debt Reduction Policy - The new debt reduction policy includes three main measures: increasing the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan, allocating 800 billion yuan annually from new local government bonds for five years, and ensuring the repayment of 2 trillion yuan in hidden debts due after 2029 [2][31][32] - The policy aims to significantly reduce the pressure of hidden debts on local governments, enhancing their financial stability [2][31] Environmental Protection Industry - The environmental protection industry is primarily engaged in essential public services such as water treatment and waste management, which are largely funded by government payments [2][36] - The PPP model has been widely adopted in the environmental sector, allowing for shared investment and operational risks between the government and private entities [2][36][40] - The industry is experiencing high levels of accounts receivable, with a significant portion of its revenue tied up in unpaid bills, leading to cash flow challenges [2][46] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on specific segments within the environmental sector, such as wastewater treatment, municipal sanitation, ecological restoration, and environmental monitoring, which show potential for cash flow improvement [2][9] - Key stocks to watch include companies with substantial accounts receivable and potential for profit recovery, such as BWS, GZKJ, and TYH [2][9]