增长缓而稳，降息近尾声——2025年度展望（五）：海外宏观

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to maintain stable growth around 2% in 2025, with inflation unlikely to reach the consensus forecast of 2.2% by year-end[1] - The output gap has narrowed from a historical peak of +6.9% in 2021-22 to +0.1% in 2023, indicating a soft landing with demand cooling and supply recovery[2] - Three key factors supporting the soft landing: strong labor market, residual pandemic policies, and low mortgage rates[2] Trump 2.0 Policy Risks - Trump's immigration and tariff policies could lead to stagflation, with a 91% probability of deporting illegal immigrants and a 70% probability of imposing large-scale tariffs[3] - Domestic tax cuts could overheat the economy, with a 70% probability of eliminating the tip tax and a 67% probability of further corporate tax cuts[3] - Uncertainty around the timing and effectiveness of Trump's policies could lead to higher market risk premiums[3] Monetary Policy - Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 125bps to 3.25-3.5% by the end of 2025, but inflation stickiness may limit the extent of rate cuts[4] - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50-75bps in the first half of 2025 due to recession concerns, but may pause in the second half as inflation re-emerges[4] - The Taylor rule suggests a 125bps rate cut if core PCE falls to 2.35%, but the Fed's actual path may differ due to model and policy uncertainties[4]