Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the pulp molding industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of biodegradable plant fiber molded products, primarily pulp molded food containers, which account for over 97% of its revenue. The company holds approximately 16% of the global market share in pulp molded food containers by value and 20% of the national production [3][4][65]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue of 1.148 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year [3][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhongxin Co., Ltd. specializes in biodegradable plant fiber molded products, with a total production capacity of 123,700 tons as of September 2024. The company has a significant market presence in the pulp molded food container sector [3][65]. 2. Industry Landscape - The global pulp molding packaging market was valued at approximately 5.111 billion USD in 2022, with food packaging accounting for 44.6% and food containers for 24.2%. The industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2023 to 2030 [4][119]. - China is a major supplier in the pulp molding industry, with a production capacity of 1.79 million tons, representing 40.5% of global capacity. The export volume of pulp molded products from China has been increasing, with a 79.4% year-on-year growth in the first eight months of 2024 [4][169]. 3. Company Strengths - The company has a favorable customer structure, with major clients including Amer Care Royal, Huhtamaki, and Eco-Products. The top five customers' revenue contribution has decreased from 58.7% in 2019 to 39.3% in 2023, indicating a diversification of its customer base [5][196]. - The company maintains a cost advantage through local sourcing of raw materials, primarily bagasse pulp and bamboo pulp, which are stable in supply. The production base in Guangxi benefits from the region's abundant sugarcane production [5][204]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 24%, and 20% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 19%, and 17% for the same years. The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.31 yuan, 3.95 yuan, and 4.61 yuan, respectively [7][236]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is projected to be 20 times, while the company is valued at a lower PE of 13 times, indicating potential for growth [238].
众鑫股份：纸浆模塑第一股，“双碳”变革下成长可期