东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241129

Macro Strategy - The report predicts that the US economy will enter the second half of a soft landing in 2025, with stable growth around 2% but inflation may not reach the expected 2.2% by the end of the year, complicating the anticipated 125bps rate cut [1][13][14] - The economic cycle is characterized by simultaneous and rapid changes in both supply and demand, with the output gap decreasing from a historical peak of +6.9% in 2021-22 to +0.1% in 2023, while maintaining stable growth [1][13][14] Credit Bonds - The report identifies key characteristics of the domestic bond market as "indirectness," "nationalization," "faith-based," "long-term," and "low interest rates," highlighting a shift from direct corporate bond issuance to indirect borrowing through banks [2][15] - The "faith-based" aspect indicates that the pricing of local state-owned enterprise bonds is now primarily influenced by liquidity risk rather than credit risk, with the S-T correlation coefficient rising to 0.7-0.8 [2][15] - The report suggests that in a low interest rate environment, investors are forced to seek returns through longer durations [2][15] Wind Power Industry - In the first ten months of 2024, new wind power installations reached 45.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with expectations for significant growth in both onshore and offshore installations in 2025 [6][19] - The wind power sector's revenue remained stable year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 778 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 12% year-on-year [6][19] - The report highlights that the profitability of the wind power sector is under pressure, with a gross margin of 15.7% in Q3 2024, down from previous periods [6][19] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends Tongqinglou, a leading banquet catering brand, projecting net profits of 1.5 billion, 3.2 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with an initial "overweight" rating [7][21] - Guizhou Moutai is highlighted for its continuous shareholder returns and efforts to improve supply-demand matching, with expected net profits adjusted to 860 million, 929 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [7][21] - The report also discusses Jiushi Yuan's pragmatic approach to growth, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 36.1 billion, 40.4 billion, and 48.1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, sustaining a "buy" rating [7][21]