原油专题（一）：迈向2025，供需该如何展望

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an Overweight rating to the Oil & Petrochemical sector, indicating a strategic investment opportunity, especially if oil prices enter a phase of upward movement after a period of decline or consolidation [2][5] Core Views - The petrochemical sector is expected to outperform during periods of rising oil prices, as evidenced by historical data showing a 121% increase in the sector during the 2015 oil price rally, compared to a 47% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The global oil market is expected to face increased volatility due to geopolitical, supply, and demand factors, with potential for strategic investment opportunities in the petrochemical sector if oil prices rise [2] - The report highlights that non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil, is expected to meet global demand growth by 2025, with OPEC+ supply changes remaining a key factor in the oil market balance [4][5] Supply-Side Analysis - Non-OPEC Supply: By 2025, non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by 162 million barrels per day (mb/d), with 71% of this growth coming from the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil [4] - OPEC+ Supply: OPEC+ production cuts may face reversals, with potential increases of 60 mb/d from OPEC+18 and 52 mb/d from OPEC-9 countries over the next 12 months if the 220 mb/d voluntary cuts are phased out [5] - US Shale Oil: US shale oil production growth is slowing due to higher costs and reduced drilling activity, with new well breakeven costs rising from $50/barrel in 2017 to $64/barrel in 2024 [63][69] Demand-Side Analysis - Short-Term Demand: Global oil demand growth is expected to slow, with 2024-2026 demand increases projected at 101, 93, and 90 mb/d, respectively, due to a combination of GDP growth and the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration [3][127] - Long-Term Demand: Emerging markets, particularly India and other non-OECD countries, are expected to drive future oil demand growth, with non-OECD countries contributing 620 mb/d of the 320 mb/d global demand growth projected from 2023-2030 [99][102] - EV Impact: The rise of electric vehicles is expected to reduce global gasoline demand, with global gasoline consumption peaking at 27 mb/d in 2023 and declining to 23.25 mb/d by 2030 [111][112] Macroeconomic Factors - Fed Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts, beginning in September 2024, are expected to weigh on oil prices in the short term, as historical data shows oil prices tend to underperform during the initial phases of rate cuts [85][86] - OECD Inventory Levels: OECD commercial crude inventories are at relatively low levels, which could provide some support to oil prices, especially if supply disruptions occur [94][95] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth "energy spread" companies such as Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Zhongman Petroleum, as well as high-dividend oil and gas assets like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [5] - It also suggests monitoring petrochemical companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Tongkun Group, which could benefit from rising oil prices [5]