下行何时结束，水泥行业路在何方--水泥行业周期性研究

Industry Overview - The cement industry in China has experienced four cycles since 1992: 1992-1998, 1999-2005, 2006-2015, and 2016-present [2] - The demand side and fuel side of the cement industry exhibit strong cyclicality, while the supply side shows passive cyclicality [2] - The cyclical characteristics of the cement industry have become more pronounced as the industry matures [2] - The current downturn cycle is expected to end with improvements in supply-demand balance, relying on supply-side measures such as staggered production, capacity reduction, and environmental protection policies [2] Historical Development - The cement industry in China has not yet completed a full lifecycle, with stages including introduction (1978-1991), rapid growth (1992-2015), and platform period (2016-present) [3] - Cement demand and dry-process capacity grew rapidly during the high-speed economic growth period, driven by real estate and infrastructure investments [3] - Since 2021, the cement industry may have entered a decline phase due to the deep adjustment of the real estate sector [3] Cycle Analysis 1992-1998 Cycle - Cement demand grew rapidly with an 11% CAGR, but the growth rate was "high in the front and low in the back" [7] - The industry was in a state of supply shortage, with small vertical kilns and wet-process cement plants dominating the market [7] 1999-2005 Cycle - Cement demand grew at a 13% CAGR, driven by real estate investment, reaching 862 million tons in 2003 [12] - Dry-process capacity expanded rapidly, leading to structural overcapacity by the end of the cycle [16] - Cement prices showed seasonal fluctuations but generally increased during the upswing [12] 2006-2015 Cycle - Cement demand reached a historical peak, driven by real estate and infrastructure investments [17] - The "Four Trillion" stimulus plan and industrial policies led to a surge in dry-process cement investment [19] - Industry concentration increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.65% of clinker capacity by 2015 [30] 2016-Present Cycle - Cement demand fluctuated at a high level during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, supported by shantytown renovation and infrastructure investment [34] - Supply-side reforms and staggered production helped control excess capacity, leading to five consecutive years of profit growth [34] - Since 2021, cement demand has declined due to falling real estate investment, leading to renewed supply-demand imbalances [47] Key Players - The top five cement companies in China are China National Building Material (CNBM), Anhui Conch Cement, Tangshan Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Hongshi Group, accounting for 46.26% of total clinker capacity [57] - CNBM and Conch Cement are national players, while the other three are regional players with some overseas operations [57] - Conch Cement has the highest clinker capacity utilization rate at 81%, followed by Hongshi Group at 90% [73] Future Outlook - The current downturn cycle is expected to end with improvements in supply-demand balance, relying on supply-side measures [85] - Conservative estimates suggest cement demand will be 16-18 billion tons, while optimistic estimates suggest 18-20 billion tons [88] - To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry may need to reduce clinker capacity by 0.90-4.33 billion tons [89] - Companies with large capacity, high operational efficiency, strong resource endowments, low debt, diversified development, and strong shareholders are expected to weather the cycle [94] Key Metrics - Cement industry profits reached a historical high of 186.7 billion yuan in 2019 but fell to 31.03 billion yuan in 2023 [51] - The clinker capacity utilization rate dropped to a historical low of 59% in 2023 [48] - Cement prices fell below 300 yuan/ton in some regions due to weak demand and intense competition [48]