地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告——湖南篇

Industry Overview - Hunan Province has significant regional and resource advantages, with a continuous economic growth trend and an optimized industrial structure, presenting a "tertiary-secondary-primary" economic development pattern [2] - The tertiary industry is the main driver of economic growth in Hunan, with the province's GDP ranking in the upper-middle range nationally and per capita GDP in the middle range [6] - The urbanization rate in Hunan is below the national average, and fixed asset investment growth turned negative in 2023 [6] Economic and Fiscal Strength - Hunan's general public budget revenue ranks in the middle nationally, with a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate and declining government fund revenue [24] - The province's government debt scale grew rapidly by the end of 2023, with a relatively high debt ratio ranking low nationally [24] - The economic and fiscal strength of cities and prefectures in Hunan varies significantly, with Changsha, the provincial capital, having a clear advantage over others [29] Debt and Financial Risks - The debt balance of local governments in Hunan's cities and prefectures continued to grow by the end of 2023, with some areas experiencing significant increases [3] - Xiangtan City saw the largest increase in government debt ratio due to substantial debt resolution policy support [3] - Hunan has repeatedly proposed implementing a comprehensive debt resolution plan and strengthening debt risk monitoring [3] Urban Investment Enterprises - Hunan has a large number of urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds, mainly distributed in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and northern Hunan regions [62] - The bond issuance scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan increased by 15.83% year-on-year in 2023, with Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou being the main issuers [65] - The net financing scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in most cities and prefectures in Hunan decreased in 2023, with Xiangtan City experiencing a significant net outflow [66] Debt Repayment Capacity - By the end of 2023, the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short-term debt of urban investment enterprises in Hunan was generally weak, indicating significant short-term liquidity pressure [72] - Changsha's urban investment enterprises have the largest debt scale in Hunan, with a substantial amount of bonds maturing in 2025, posing significant repayment pressure [74] - The overall financing pace of urban investment enterprises in Hunan slowed down in 2023, with a 29.94% year-on-year decrease in net cash inflow from financing activities [77]